World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0142f706a3aeff4e148009178bba4060617818b0d202edad89b35185afcf2d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67f9…d241backed No | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 61c | 4,500$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.9 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 63c | 1,019$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2e50backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…f34fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…8b14backed No | 39c | 995$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…99f5backed No | 40c | 990$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 35c | 870$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.82 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 54c | 824.99$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…8accbacked No | 38c | 700$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…026dbacked Yes | 62c | 685$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 38c | 637.25$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.56 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…b88ebacked Yes | 62c | 580$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe357…e06dbacked No | 38c | 495$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…88afbacked Yes | 62c | 425$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c5…ead5backed Yes | 62c | 420$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5765…7a40backed No | 40c | 415$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…c648backed Yes | 57c | 410$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…07c3backed Yes | 62c | 395$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…605abacked No | 43c | 395$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3356…11f3backed No | 38c | 390$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…84b0backed Yes | 57c | 385$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 45c | 384.02$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…5942backed No | 38c | 380$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…16edbacked Yes | 59c | 337.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa62…dc58backed Yes | 62c | 315$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…e7f7backed Yes | 62c | 315$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…832fbacked No | 38c | 310$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 76c | 294.64$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…7f60backed No | 38c | 290$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…e6ccbacked No | 43c | 285$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19aa…02efbacked No | 38c | 280$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…a603backed No | 38c | 280$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c60…e152backed No | 38c | 260$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 61c | 246.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d03ebacked No | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8332…7c18backed No | 43c | 230$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…4c80backed Yes | 62c | 230$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…0d0fbacked No | 38c | 225$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…4f30backed No | 38c | 225$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked No | 48c | 206.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 68c | 190$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e5…ba7dbacked No | 40c | 190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 62c | 161.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…52ddbacked Yes | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…1adcbacked Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…b5c2backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…ebb4backed No | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 61c | 149.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…47e7backed No | 35c | 141.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 39c | 133.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…7dcbbacked Yes | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…96e0backed No | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…14cabacked Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 40c | 108.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…9ae8backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…6a38backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1bafbacked Yes | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…212bbacked Yes | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 37c | 88.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked No | 46c | 87.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 87.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 65c | 81.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…49e4backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 70c | 80.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6457…834fbacked Yes | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 56c | 71.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…77b2backed Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…177cbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 39c | 56.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…70d5backed No | 36c | 54.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 39c | 41.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 41.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…ca7ebacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 64c | 38.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…4ce5backed Yes | 57c | 38.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 60c | 36.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…82d5backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…9849backed Yes | 61c | 32.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…8c3abacked Yes | 67c | 32.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.