World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc783ff645c86be8466b2bdc88502183b89c2c9807cdd567bc109a8e5780ad5bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,079$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…96e0backed No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 66c | 967.42$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 42c | 796.49$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.75 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c6…c9f9backed Yes | 68c | 767.96$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 31c | 596.49$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 37c | 534.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb9…1e9abacked Yes | 62c | 420$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 43c | 305.88$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 26c | 297.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…2353backed Yes | 62c | 225$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 40c | 216.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 48c | 182.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…9ae8backed Yes | 62c | 180$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f18cbacked No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 36c | 134.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed Yes | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…fa19backed No | 34c | 114.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 38c | 114$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 32c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 66c | 91.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 62c | 83.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 34c | 78.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 65c | 71.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2e50backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82c…3386backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3f…3244backed Yes | 65c | 26.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…a9c5backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.