World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7e2719b99968b9683bcdc6ed2fcbb98f07f530e502fa3137da612e2119cbb4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44b…bea3backed Yes | 23c | 27,400$6,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,302 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb315…b839backed No | 77c | 27,400$21,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,302 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 3,822$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.95 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 67c | 732.58$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.21 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 70c | 704$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.65 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 73c | 418.63$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…ed66backed No | 72c | 399.69$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 70c | 342$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 336.52$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 34c | 277.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 67c | 262.56$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 66c | 217.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 69c | 217.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 73c | 197.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 67c | 137$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 74c | 114.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 71c | 110.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 30c | 100.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7372…ad6dbacked No | 71c | 88.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…2829backed No | 69c | 86.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed Yes | 24c | 81.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 66c | 79.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 34c | 77.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdffc…53e6backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 72.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 61c | 65.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…fa19backed No | 74c | 53.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 53.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 71c | 43.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 28c | 42.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…5f6abacked Yes | 27c | 40.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…4ff5backed No | 74c | 40.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.32per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…d80fbacked No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…4ccfbacked No | 74c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…0f1dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccee…5724backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…a0a5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.