World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459e26ea0ef5fae66cc7174b373906acd4579b47930d63907c9b26446000aff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x232c…ce04backed Yes | 37c | 990$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…394ebacked Yes | 37c | 960$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…bba0backed Yes | 37c | 930$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7695…4cd7backed No | 63c | 830$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…a5c5backed Yes | 37c | 675$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa62…dc58backed No | 63c | 615$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 36c | 596.78$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 34c | 571.41$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 63c | 554.99$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 66c | 520.39$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.86 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f67…15c4backed No | 63c | 480$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 63c | 477.94$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.88 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…ed66backed No | 64c | 431.12$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 38c | 410.11$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.03 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 34c | 401.42$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.29 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…89eabacked No | 63c | 310$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 60c | 302.5$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66e5…a85bbacked Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 37c | 276.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 38c | 260.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…9ae8backed No | 63c | 260$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…99f5backed No | 63c | 260$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…5106backed No | 63c | 255$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…cdd9backed No | 63c | 255$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…e780backed Yes | 37c | 235$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…d655backed No | 63c | 235$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 35c | 221$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…2b47backed No | 63c | 220$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c24…baa5backed No | 63c | 195$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 36c | 176.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…fc19backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 136.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 71c | 113.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…629cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 63c | 81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked No | 62c | 80.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc0…b57bbacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…f34fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9500…ebbcbacked No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…8c3abacked No | 68c | 44.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2f…f6abbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…615fbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed No | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…0ae4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x853d…790fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 70c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.