TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,656
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,656 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7018…a7eabacked No75c48,726$36,545 inWon+$12,181.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x231c…c5ddbacked Yes25c48,726$12,182 inLost-$12,181.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44b…bea3backed Yes26c22,905$5,955 inLost-$5,955.330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8df0…1c54backed No74c22,905$16,950 inWon+$5,955.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7b…330abacked Yes29c1,000$290 inLost-$290333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffa…0ae6backed Yes29c995$289 inLost-$288.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc110…0401backed No71c795$564 inWon+$230.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a7…9204backed No71c450$320 inWon+$130.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbd…ed66backed No73c402.05$293 inWon+$108.622630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes27c307.67$83 inLost-$82.929627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd112…c648backed No71c275$195 inWon+$79.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe357…e06dbacked No71c275$195 inWon+$79.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb65…df33backed No71c145$103 inWon+$42.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes30c119.99$36 inLost-$35.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed No71c105.48$75 inWon+$30.25530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-46.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost-$23.45832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes29c66.78$19 inLost-$19.3757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xceca…3a75backed No71c60$43 inWon+$17.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No79c60$48 inWon+$12.314033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed No70c56.76$40 inWon+$16.768726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+258.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe991…9969backed Yes30c50$15 inLost-$152445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No68c47.51$32 inWon+$15.254934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x917e…4ff5backed No69c43.48$30 inWon+$13.48837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick62cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed No71c41.97$30 inWon+$11.971233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No71c40.74$29 inWon+$11.6112056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes32c40$13 inLost-$12.82317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca26…55d9backed Yes32c39.72$13 inLost-$12.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf629…f0c4backed No69c28.86$20 inWon+$8.861735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.