World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5c00b7b9b6a13241e7a3457b5591b7b83311d0939f012f5491f214d1e8e6176
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 43c | 1,995$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed No | 57c | 1,942$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 78c | 610.36$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked No | 79c | 610$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 30c | 330.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…16edbacked Yes | 31c | 318.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 71c | 316$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.4 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 296$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.22 | 1,344 | 44.3%595 W · 749 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 28c | 235.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.77 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 69c | 144.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 553 | 34.5%191 W · 362 L | -38.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…fb9dbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 58c | 59.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0484backed Yes | 30c | 50.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…5f6abacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…4254backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…04d5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.