World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2afe2671960ee1828210e14c551372f5438b7fb67e91815ae19105c47839ed45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…5390backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac18…9154backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…8accbacked Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…964ebacked No | 43c | 815$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 56c | 663.05$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.74 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 44c | 513.17$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.74 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3c…710abacked No | 43c | 510$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…8a10backed Yes | 57c | 510$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…9eeebacked Yes | 57c | 490$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 45c | 475$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.47 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…96e0backed No | 43c | 460$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 42c | 380.2$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 55c | 379.99$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 40c | 362.5$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 58c | 260$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 56c | 219.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 43c | 193.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…86d8backed No | 43c | 175$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 41c | 174.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…f3febacked Yes | 58c | 173.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 37c | 151.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 57c | 151.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 43c | 143.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…16edbacked Yes | 53c | 141.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 40c | 121.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…ea15backed Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 37c | 110.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…82d5backed Yes | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 41c | 89.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 70.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 48c | 64.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…1621backed No | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 55c | 56.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 61c | 55.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…8c3abacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 46.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…fa19backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…e56cbacked Yes | 55c | 45.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +886%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 39.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…6f16backed No | 43c | 34.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…15babacked Yes | 60c | 31.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…a641backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.