TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6770…45fb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
297
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 63 out of 100; worst Tennis at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Musiclast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT9335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 93 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,172Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$399.64
Will Romania win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.91
Will Ukraine win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.72
Will Denmark win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$565Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+55.5%+$313.31
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.42
Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.96
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.99
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,743Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,742.86
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.92
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,281Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,281.3
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$6,118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,117.81
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$359.4
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.43
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,008.92
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.39
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.7
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$5,873Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,872.94
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$127
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.67
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$4,168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,167.63
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.55
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.49
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.75
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$212
Showing 25 of 93 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT7644.7%34 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,412Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+58.3%+$823.55
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+148.2%+$844.22
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+300%+$750
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+96.3%+$279.63
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$372
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.17
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$543.23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+50.5%+$283.44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$811Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$811.42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$4,832Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+133%+$6,424.48
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$915
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,547Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+337.4%+$5,218.3
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+457.3%+$1,230.82
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$550.81
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+102.2%+$455
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$5,063Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+90.4%+$4,574.77
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$168
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$439.52
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,087Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+207.1%+$2,251.25
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,695Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,695.32
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.8
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$269
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.9
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT2470.8%17 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+57.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$120
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,203Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$368.96
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$550.99
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.94
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$601.02
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$19.66
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$558Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+39%+$217.25
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.64
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$183.2
Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+165%+$620.89
Will Trump say Fake news during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.06
Will Trump say Bibi during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$112.16
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+395%+$159.6
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT+189%+$34.6
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+190.9%+$171.71
Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+47.7%+$93.26
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+169.3%+$420.53
Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.16
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+280.7%+$856.01
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+125.1%+$454.25
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+83.1%+$40.46
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" during the press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$56.99
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "DOGE" 5+ times during the press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+30%+$93.52
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$30.8
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+163.9%+$154.74
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.26
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.42
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$75.16
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$74.73
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+170.3%+$327.6
Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+50%+$90.21
Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$39.6
Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$59
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.91
Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+84.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,050.31
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+563.6%+$1,570.36
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+459.2%+$397.17
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.44
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$26.35
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$116.09
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.55
Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.02
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+46.5%+$66.1
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+172.9%+$88.7
Will Donald Trump say Elon during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+38%+$17.93
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$761Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$328.04
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$588Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+70.2%+$412.5
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.99
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$196
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$550
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$475
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+60.1%+$33.8
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$154
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$531Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$238.7
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,491Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+40.2%+$599.8
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$170
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,069.81
Will Jerry Heil win Vidbir 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$250.8
Will Leléka win Vidbir 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$797Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+64.4%+$513.36
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+51.5%+$18.6
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+181.1%+$122.1
Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Donald Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$16.09
Will Donald Trump say "Crimea" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.15
Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+40.8%+$11.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$95.33
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$912Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$469.85
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$5,292Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+143.1%+$7,574.49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$239.79
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$624Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$624
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$820Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$819.79
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,632Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+57.2%+$1,505.97
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.89
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$56.07
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+296.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+259.1%+$221.13
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+333.6%+$377.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+100%+$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Oct 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Getting Info vs SkinRave (BO3)backed Getting Info · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$379.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$410
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Padres vs. Blue Jaysbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.