TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,718,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,522,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,718,522 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c168,189$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.021015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes22c101,689$22,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,644.4935123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes35c60,647$21,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,344.3463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes35c59,988$20,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,895.4114337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes7c57,360$4,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,234.745514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick15cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x538c…b902backed Yes1c48,987$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.7130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes23c47,112$10,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,761.05494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1005…a843backed Yes50c45,548$22,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,872.6825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf36c…74debacked Yes6c42,541$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8e…299cbacked Yes0c41,245$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c40,422$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.35940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf45…ed5fbacked Yes23c37,478$8,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,521.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes7c36,391$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.96723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No58c33,409$19,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,154.534257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes26c29,939$7,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,890.111554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No62c29,812$18,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,392.138100%8 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc023…5ae8backed Yes4c26,849$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9604…fc1dbacked No74c25,120$18,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,621.99475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c24,527$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.051360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc893…b7b0backed Yes2c23,739$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.13812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes60c23,696$14,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,325.3537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes16c21,481$3,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,368.678713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes30c21,294$6,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,342.387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes36c20,128$7,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,281.5625824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No25c20,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,999.9612025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…7ebfbacked Yes11c19,589$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.9650%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No54c18,058$9,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,324.6425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf25…3b7fbacked No62c17,916$11,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,752.951450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c17,320$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.32800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes2c16,379$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.631198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed Yes4c16,080$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.458634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c16,060$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.31,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6846…b797backed No29c15,634$4,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,068.72875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+72.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes5c15,530$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.0210313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed No31c15,278$4,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,576.771020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d2d…cac3backed Yes7c15,001$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.11812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-75%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x790e…76afbacked Yes66c14,868$9,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,858.861145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c2…0f22backed Yes44c14,699$6,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,502.691450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes40c14,504$5,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,777.418425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ed…b0f4backed No70c14,307$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,306.29520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes52c13,667$7,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,094.6120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf45…c794backed No62c13,143$8,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,946.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00b5…b3cabacked Yes5c13,027$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes11c13,024$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.83330%0 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes1c13,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c12,932$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.862290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce09…6b0bbacked No59c11,981$7,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.523658.3%21 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6519…ddc7backed Yes1c11,748$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes3c11,257$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.72382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes22c11,213$2,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.14528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes5c11,003$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.6418315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba1…673cbacked Yes1c10,081$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No40c10,000$3,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,011.544858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes19c9,599$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.0455032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes13c9,508$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.62342.9%1 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-88.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes9c8,896$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.492520%5 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b8…f3e5backed No46c8,652$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,652.123100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3694…950fbacked Yes12c8,621$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.42757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick20cpaid+137.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes21c8,452$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.43219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ea…7ec5backed Yes1c8,430$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes18c8,282$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.355324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b90…8cdcbacked Yes22c8,216$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+82.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1be…3772backed Yes9c8,061$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.572412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed No74c7,935$5,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.126053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes37c7,876$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.2558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Yes4c7,856$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-57.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x295d…accebacked Yes1c7,657$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.78147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e6…389dbacked Yes45c7,482$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,333450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49d…c3dbbacked Yes17c7,470$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.65520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1b30…ef81backed Yes28c7,260$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a92…071ebacked No70c7,187$5,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.983076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes13c7,167$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.924721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5be…b7e3backed No80c6,853$5,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe976…68d1backed Yes6c6,665$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.481717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9615…38acbacked Yes26c6,515$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.251428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes43c6,426$2,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.7522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes10c6,294$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.611172.7%8 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.37per pick36cpaid+152.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe119…e30fbacked Yes28c5,875$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.121136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+168%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes10c5,702$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.6512824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb64f…6c58backed Yes12c5,678$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.323915.4%6 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-53.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes7c5,674$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.282910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…c4a4backed Yes4c5,650$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea63…1ebcbacked Yes76c5,636$4,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,303.41560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc122…731fbacked Yes16c5,518$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.3390%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1386…4f01backed Yes24c5,495$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdff…806ebacked Yes10c5,478$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.912161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9a4…fca5backed Yes2c5,400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2af…412ebacked Yes9c5,365$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46b8…9fe5backed Yes4c5,322$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No28c5,187$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,720.284839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb42…0b87backed Yes62c5,003$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,119785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick60cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No60c5,000$3,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9953455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c4,957$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.871070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeaf…266bbacked Yes51c4,715$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b8…63acbacked Yes15c4,642$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes36c4,561$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af5…b4bbbacked No77c4,406$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d80…55c3backed Yes24c4,114$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a46…40fbbacked Yes1c4,050$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.