TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,745,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,926,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,745,960 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes5c144,000$6,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,750.99319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c67,947$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.5718315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c36,796$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.471015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes5c35,117$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.86520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes3c32,298$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.05120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes1c30,397$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.786425%16 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c29,849$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.385411.1%6 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c28,011$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.641360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c20,826$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.791488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b5…d709backed Yes1c18,414$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.89140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes1c16,318$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.579913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes1c15,149$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd586…87e2backed Yes2c13,409$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7a…353abacked Yes4c12,622$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes8c12,556$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x662f…cc30backed Yes0c11,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d10…957cbacked Yes3c10,788$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76ca…c08dbacked Yes3c10,475$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.03812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa015…80bbbacked Yes5c10,135$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7f…9f82backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10506%3 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-90.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c9,586$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.531,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa28b…b4edbacked Yes3c8,879$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa838…00babacked Yes8c8,250$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes1c6,528$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.68414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa2…b94fbacked Yes2c6,420$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes2c5,556$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes4c5,485$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.97170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd33f…33e1backed Yes2c5,276$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.27140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea7f…85d5backed Yes4c5,078$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcec0…5ca4backed Yes2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c9b…7a04backed Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bb…3345backed Yes8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes2c4,944$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.05160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…4f37backed Yes0c4,333$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e66…01cbbacked Yes6c3,339$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.36147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-88.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes3c3,268$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0211316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…3802backed Yes5c3,264$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df7…6d89backed Yes4c3,253$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce10…85a5backed Yes2c3,248$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa140…d86fbacked Yes2c3,235$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32a2…df8cbacked Yes2c3,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c2,989$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.921693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bfb…f482backed Yes4c2,718$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes4c2,558$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.532910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x680c…e11dbacked Yes7c2,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes1c2,430$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7317231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x838b…a75cbacked Yes3c2,420$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.85300%0 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed29…c7a7backed Yes5c2,378$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.38911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-61.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b5…c106backed Yes5c2,045$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3867…ae73backed Yes3c1,934$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe17e…1079backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeadf…7670backed Yes6c1,660$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.650%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes3c1,565$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes5c1,564$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.728619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd82f…1d21backed Yes7c1,561$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb46b…c79abacked Yes2c1,500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes1c1,421$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21382.6%1 W · 37 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-86.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3af…1aa6backed Yes3c1,402$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383611.1%4 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a13…e0f9backed Yes4c1,372$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7f…f98ebacked Yes1c1,300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9797…1d4abacked Yes4c1,282$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6393…0614backed Yes2c1,269$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes3c1,254$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6912012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd34…c3fbbacked Yes2c1,200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes3c1,198$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.745324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd17…d296backed Yes2c1,111$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-77.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe700…d6b9backed Yes7c1,101$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07a7…60bcbacked Yes2c1,100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc40…c0e7backed Yes3c1,042$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c8a…f044backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70110%0 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4da1…f3c5backed Yes3c1,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2870%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe43…c5b1backed Yes1c999.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5777…1905backed Yes2c999.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5174…7d00backed Yes2c984.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x403f…18c3backed Yes2c909.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31f…819bbacked Yes3c900$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11b6…0131backed Yes2c880$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34a…8251backed Yes3c838.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5480%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes2c833.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204827.1%13 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b00…bd68backed Yes2c800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e15…ee86backed Yes3c800$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf3…97cdbacked Yes2c797.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198f…be7cbacked Yes2c780$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.041729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x560b…85d7backed Yes1c758.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1690%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa0d…dc21backed Yes3c756.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ea9ebacked Yes2c707.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x571c…a199backed Yes7c700$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8726…797cbacked Yes4c699.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f5e…27debacked Yes5c695.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f3…f673backed Yes6c648.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefee…1c08backed Yes3c645.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes7c571.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.