Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc19b7dee8883e27c2e617cfa9a8875c5f014643f760f72121f4a769b19536c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $894,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,069,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $894,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 1c | 93,733$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.24 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 30,859$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 20,926$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…6835backed Yes | 2c | 17,239$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes | 2c | 13,833$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,652$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Yes | 1c | 13,180$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9485…0cd0backed Yes | 1c | 13,005$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6047…dd84backed Yes | 2c | 11,419$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 1c | 10,232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…3e53backed Yes | 2c | 10,105$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,969$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…be75backed Yes | 2c | 8,528$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 7,646$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 7,035$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 101 | 5.9%6 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…8b5ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…7adcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,620$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…c08dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,058$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7043…1425backed Yes | 0c | 4,936$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…71efbacked Yes | 1c | 4,760$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,321$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87e2backed Yes | 2c | 4,278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…e235backed Yes | 1c | 4,040$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa7…9cd9backed Yes | 1c | 3,406$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…7f5bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,808$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 0c | 2,541$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…071ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,441$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…9b66backed Yes | 2c | 2,311$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…17e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,292$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 68 | 10.3%7 W · 61 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…550dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ce…67a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,792$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 1c | 1,567$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…0bb5backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…1d21backed Yes | 2c | 1,430$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…7b2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,364$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8279…7edcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,355$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…9546backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d7b9backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…a739backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…59eabacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…c328backed Yes | 1c | 999.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…3ca5backed Yes | 1c | 972.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…f712backed Yes | 1c | 958.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…4527backed Yes | 2c | 954.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0867…c3abbacked Yes | 1c | 849.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…d2e7backed Yes | 1c | 849.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebb…a464backed Yes | 1c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…275bbacked Yes | 2c | 733.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…e8d3backed Yes | 2c | 655.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8042…82a7backed Yes | 2c | 590.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…556dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…f7adbacked Yes | 2c | 476.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.