Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc58d566cbbe1514a13d07692463a16ae0024fa20811a1bb8f48228884895355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,588,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,147,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,588,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 0c | 2,200,925$4,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,362.52 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 1,354,799$6,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,574.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 1,115,735$5,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,489.84 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 0c | 889,234$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.94 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6abc…cc5bbacked Yes | 0c | 446,799$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bc0backed Yes | 1c | 402,415$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600.32 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48be…caaebacked Yes | 0c | 309,855$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…b6a5backed Yes | 1c | 191,470$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b49…2db9backed Yes | 1c | 134,309$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 0c | 132,038$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.15 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 0c | 127,998$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…d292backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes | 1c | 95,387$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…810bbacked Yes | 1c | 84,764$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…768abacked Yes | 0c | 81,419$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01bc…7b61backed Yes | 1c | 77,044$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a1…4739backed Yes | 1c | 73,365$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e7…44b2backed Yes | 1c | 66,035$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6bfcbacked Yes | 1c | 61,423$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…be75backed Yes | 1c | 56,667$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0290…2c7bbacked Yes | 0c | 49,500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…ad8fbacked Yes | 1c | 44,042$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02d…2935backed Yes | 0c | 40,550$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…0752backed Yes | 0c | 39,520$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd051…f522backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…7f85backed Yes | 0c | 33,313$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…08ebbacked Yes | 1c | 33,260$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.52 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 31,600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7537…e19bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,309$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a9…210dbacked Yes | 1c | 26,956$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…0ec7backed Yes | 0c | 26,400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -97.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 0c | 26,123$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…6eb8backed Yes | 0c | 26,020$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…d709backed Yes | 0c | 25,943$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df9…a5debacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…cd66backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…ed3fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…d529backed Yes | 0c | 20,069$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…fcfbbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…0a07backed Yes | 0c | 18,833$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…4827backed Yes | 1c | 16,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8750…3f23backed Yes | 0c | 16,127$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…3ee2backed Yes | 1c | 15,288$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…28b1backed Yes | 0c | 15,133$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…cc7bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…6835backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2d…bc1cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…b817backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe597…8519backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…0630backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…cb70backed Yes | 0c | 9,433$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080d…94cdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,903$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1978…a10fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…6ca9backed Yes | 1c | 6,667$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd5…b604backed Yes | 1c | 5,872$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1c…3a2abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d4…e810backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf177…d4f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,286$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1c…80c6backed Yes | 0c | 3,977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,571$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bef…ef0bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…95c1backed Yes | 1c | 2,812$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…dc21backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…d762backed Yes | 1c | 2,040$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…a279backed Yes | 1c | 2,009$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…7adcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…6512backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…e314backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc5…218abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…3ee4backed Yes | 1c | 1,683$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…81b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.