TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$641,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$724,208

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $641,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 363 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes65c50,831$32,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,018.2863835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a92…071ebacked Yes66c30,211$20,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,180.943076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes67c24,525$16,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,177.424839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc951…8ab4backed No57c22,690$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked No7c22,143$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.761435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2edd…082bbacked No0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd2…d91ebacked No65c21,000$13,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,699.933060%18 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf893…cc40backed No4c17,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes76c16,335$12,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.1437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No18c13,610$2,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.610545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x933f…1540backed No67c13,372$8,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,900250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed No15c11,894$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.831020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes37c10,917$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,917.066723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6e…6429backed No12c10,282$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked Yes46c9,144$4,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,900.034050%20 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6038…413ebacked No66c9,021$5,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,953.77366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes48c7,935$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.74047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe700…7005backed Yes33c7,575$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,075.191478.6%11 W · 3 L+6.9wins+0.50per pick29cpaid+200.1%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes37c7,000$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,429.861533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+110%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes67c6,951$4,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.0555032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87bd…4c30backed No6c6,880$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd673…c7efbacked No14c6,800$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked No50c6,000$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.9950%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No16c5,657$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.162634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes78c5,339$4,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.3616761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x372b…cbf5backed Yes49c5,023$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,539.17666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…7f98backed No46c5,000$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.974242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec9…1018backed No5c4,685$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x285c…3583backed No38c4,500$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.871172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes58c4,255$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.211554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x901c…2d73backed Yes52c3,585$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No22c3,528$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.15639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d618backed Yes59c3,398$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No19c3,390$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65012736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe4e…c06fbacked No9c3,159$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.86520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed No25c3,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7601040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No15c2,999$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.068625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x334a…f1eabacked No8c2,978$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed No6c2,700$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.951741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes44c2,685$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.0818315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff3d…92f3backed Yes38c2,620$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.75580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+195.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d46…dcd1backed No66c2,500$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6501145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No12c2,453$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.2764812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb4f…7f8bbacked Yes44c2,400$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabdc…3320backed No10c2,398$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.860%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No23c2,365$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.022222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f22…41c6backed No27c2,186$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca53…2dffbacked No54c2,151$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes70c2,132$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.394136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a82…30aebacked Yes66c2,103$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.441560%9 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+53.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfff1…ed1fbacked Yes50c2,001$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.412763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ed6…49a1backed No67c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed Yes71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…e94abacked Yes51c1,978$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.141346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x825a…8835backed Yes37c1,904$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.02988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.5wins+0.50per pick39cpaid+141.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No42c1,900$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7929546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No62c1,800$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.993351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc71…eb87backed No64c1,672$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f5…e4dabacked No30c1,664$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked No11c1,614$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No38c1,613$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.98038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked Yes49c1,604$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes70c1,555$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.5234848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked No67c1,548$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.351625%4 W · 12 L-5.9wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-62.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked No43c1,505$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.5111316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f55…74dabacked No67c1,493$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No6c1,434$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.671693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8309…62b1backed Yes35c1,429$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+138.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf35e…48a4backed No9c1,333$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52c5…924bbacked Yes76c1,300$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.061346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87b…3f57backed No42c1,300$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6b…5578backed Yes71c1,283$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.29933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43a5…55e9backed Yes39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.051154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e27…9890backed Yes50c1,200$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5961573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+44.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x174b…0332backed No67c1,186$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f07…fbdebacked No15c1,176$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51bd…ce44backed No7c1,161$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed No19c1,142$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.11811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-78.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71bf…a0b9backed No54c1,045$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48af…0910backed No1c1,039$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e25…c1ecbacked Yes48c1,034$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b7a…8304backed No19c1,010$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.624161%25 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No16c1,010$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb7b…1476backed Yes50c1,009$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+173.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6502536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.1114075.7%106 W · 34 L+17.6wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9514…9017backed No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849b…cb81backed No62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6201136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc1c…ad56backed Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.951330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cad…994fbacked No64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79b3…8c46backed No63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a9…ca64backed Yes34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6602100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+124%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes50c1,000$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49516729.3%49 W · 118 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b6…3eacbacked No66c999.99$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78f2…f486backed No67c999.98$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed No5c981.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa92…0d27backed No41c980.27$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.91921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-48.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8107…98d0backed No8c962.07$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ba…7889backed No12c933.62$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.