Wallet 0xe94b…5abe
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xe94bf89e66b852d60866667bddf7bff9dad65abe
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 12
- What they are worth now
- $406
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $1,731
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 12, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 August 24-30?backed No | 415shares | 56c | 36c | $149 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?backed Yes | 4,083shares | 16c | 2c | $78 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?backed Yes | 21,830shares | 2c | 0c | $55 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?backed Yes | 2,073shares | 12c | 3c | $54 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?backed Yes | 1,402shares | 6c | 1c | $20 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?backed No | 54.38shares | 5c | 31c | $17 |
| Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?backed Yes | 940shares | 4c | 1c | $10 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?backed Yes | 98.88shares | 40c | 9c | $8 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?backed No | 10.01shares | 13c | 68c | $7 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?backed Yes | 852.8shares | 3c | 1c | $6 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x7f8b…c0fbbacked outcome 1 | 105,766shares | 0c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0xb9a6…616fbacked outcome 0 | 27,958shares | 0c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · resolved | 17,643shares | 0c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0x95ae…578ebacked outcome 1 | 16,953shares | 0c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x4ff8…6099backed outcome 1 | 16,230shares | 0c | $0 | Not ingested |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 does — the wallet holds a scored pick on that market, already in the table below. 4 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 431
- Categories scored
- 15
- Categories below 50
- 7
Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).
Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst UFC at 43.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Commoditieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commodities — the 150 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Crypto Milestoneslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Crypto Milestones — the 86 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fifa International — the 41 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UFC — the 30 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NBA — the 26 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AI — the 13 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Earnings — the 9 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks — the 8 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Macro Indicators — the 6 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.