TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$411,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$424,130

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf039…cb4abacked No1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed No32c25,746$8,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,144.23742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x877f…772abacked No1c7,752$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked No5c5,726$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes71c5,190$3,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.1119236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes75c5,018$3,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.174542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes75c4,679$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.438150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes80c4,632$3,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.569129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3656…b4bbbacked No44c4,608$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes73c4,474$3,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.9118425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes72c4,409$3,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.217633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No10c4,304$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.9533313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes76c4,000$3,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.72657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed No14c4,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5402657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No22c3,791$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.0935519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1809…4eb7backed No50c3,256$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.991369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+88%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d7b…eb1dbacked No32c3,126$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes68c2,928$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.0914460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x587c…b4b6backed No1c2,747$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92d…2497backed No43c2,424$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.23812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.43per pick55cpaid-84.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xdf78…8e63backed No8c2,341$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30f…f4ddbacked No44c2,282$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes70c2,204$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.8756733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No7c2,188$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7128320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No11c2,120$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.222425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No28c2,103$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.813560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes77c1,779$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.0813943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c1,749$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.6269634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c1,712$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.531,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe30f…6450backed No18c1,676$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes36c1,670$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.3411428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes77c1,500$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501080%8 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes72c1,405$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.0311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No23c1,315$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.4299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b22…1d59backed Yes79c1,300$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2735100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No23c1,282$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.4911529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes72c1,195$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.4910145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed No14c1,179$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.024634.8%16 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ce…fa8cbacked No18c1,046$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x924a…8af5backed No45c1,040$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.19728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes72c999.98$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.999549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No23c964.75$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.144922.4%11 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x084e…5996backed No43c927.11$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93e5…cac2backed No28c918.01$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.05520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6d…8371backed No48c900$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaefe…d7d4backed No19c894.74$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-63.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No19c883.94$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2121634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f23…27cbbacked No12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes38c779.01$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.9910749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x95a0…523bbacked No13c753.92$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes78c752.33$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6410452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes60c714.56$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.8218445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes60c705.29$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.3337740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed No5c701.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.441915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-77.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes69c700$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2194139%16 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed No43c698$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.261233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes56c690$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.64850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes65c661.31$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.56955.1%38 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes67c605.42$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.265010%5 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-82.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c586.68$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.735834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes74c583.8$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.65437%20 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes74c521$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.462157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19532626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d7…35f4backed Yes66c495.29$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.541241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x800c…4305backed No4c476.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes71c449.61$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.968749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x990c…5ccfbacked No12c443.49$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.33520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+112.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No69c432.79$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes67c415.96$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2317355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes65c395.18$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.682142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes37c382.68$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.098820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4e3…3464backed Yes73c374.94$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes73c365.07$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.383164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9a8…5888backed No33c363.2$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f0…3bdbbacked No4c357.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-73.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…620ebacked No6c353.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes61c353.44$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.248536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a3…7e5cbacked No59c341.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c65…6b11backed No28c333.83$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.771546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes77c326.44$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.082560%15 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes33c324.18$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.638030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked No31c318.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.923060%18 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+92%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No30c316.19$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.225335.8%19 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No13c302.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9836527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed Yes40c300$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1813167.7%21 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+108.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc28a…2657backed No37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes62c295$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0815227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1e…d491backed No41c292.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Yes73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.972965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad8…f3fabacked No36c272.01$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82c7…16dabacked No19c262.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ec…8fd6backed No19c260.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.57922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid+47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c8…7251backed No30c260.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f35…dfa6backed Yes71c259.54$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+59.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8add…fc2abacked Yes57c250$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9213…1431backed No45c248.84$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd53a…f8acbacked No6c245.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No42c242$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.44422.7%10 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa34f…212ebacked No42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.