TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e9c…cd75

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
262
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Tennis, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 58 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST11428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 114 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,498Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,498.33
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$177.28
Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$447.56
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.5%+$100.44
Will TikTok be banned in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$661Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$661.02
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+48%+$10.92
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$5,272Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.6%+$1,773.51
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$318.65
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+73.9%+$85
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$967Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$967.35
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,426.65
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.5
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$293.17
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.1
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+203%+$67
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14.9
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+38.9%+$56
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+71.9%+$304.28
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$233.56
Will Elon register the America Party before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+143.1%+$46.05
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.69
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$599Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+178.6%+$1,070.34
Missing Epstein cell footage released in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$264.34
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+48.5%+$193.62
Missing Epstein cell footage released by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Showing 25 of 114 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST8617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.96
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$67.81
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,772Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,771.7
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12,579Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+46.7%+$5,879.68
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$214.57
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,642Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,642.06
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13,962Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13,962.21
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$810.38
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.32
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$7,414Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$5,369.78
Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55,944Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$15,003.23
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.15
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,721Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,720.65
Israel x Syria security deal before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,125Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,125.18
Israel strikes Iran before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$149
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.19
Syria strikes Israel by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.91
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.38
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20,491Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20,490.54
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$116,089Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$116,089.23
Israel strikes Syria by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+156.6%+$238.3
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.68
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.24
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.4%+$29.79
More EU sanctions on Russia by August 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$141.25
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$289.71
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$49.64
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+40%+$100.38
Ukraine hits Moscow by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$874Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$874.4
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$417.64
Trump x Putin talk by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.62
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$138.78
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,857Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+29.8%+$852.74
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.97
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$43,512Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+35.6%+$15,495.12
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,197Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+41.6%+$913.56
NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Pacers backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,999.21
Will the Thunder beat the Pacers 4-2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,866Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT+32.2%+$1,244.18
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$385.35
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+300%+$83.25
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$271.69
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$127.82
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.81
Fed rate cut by October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+52.9%+$258.86
Fed rate cut by December meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.55
Fed rate cut by September meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,549Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+31.7%+$807.73
Will Trump try to fire Powell by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.64
Will no one dissent the Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.93
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.49
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.22
Megaquake by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.92
Will Solana reach $180 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10,415Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,414.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Poirier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$924Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$924.42
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.