TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,169,804
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,655,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,169,804 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,012 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes12c703,008$87,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,804.131612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes14c292,770$39,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,749.693823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes23c235,528$54,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,341.9137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked Yes15c194,285$28,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,824.91050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes18c182,525$32,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,265.474650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes18c172,396$31,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,749.512654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes12c134,635$16,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,447.726423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes11c123,285$13,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,099.164257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes28c106,310$30,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,095.6651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes19c104,702$19,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,893.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes13c102,138$13,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,238.5217018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No77c97,614$75,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,203.398056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes14c90,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,599.993342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes15c67,294$10,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,281.37330%0 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No74c66,189$48,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,426.848137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes32c63,994$20,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,490.548617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes11c54,206$6,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,135.4848923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes14c52,698$7,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,592.757538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No76c44,795$34,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,579.335141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No77c43,499$33,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,139.9335347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes21c40,714$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,50034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32a4…3956backed Yes3c37,316$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.77875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No71c36,807$26,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,746.232157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No32c36,023$11,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,324.834835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes3c35,160$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.544022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes5c31,000$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,69436227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes21c29,067$6,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,227.482941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed No75c28,583$21,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,070.477751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes25c26,888$6,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,612.28845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No65c26,827$17,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,415.591752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes26c26,190$6,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,686.3231241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes35c25,276$8,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,939.771637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed Yes10c25,257$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.541723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No68c25,162$17,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,055.867462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab3d…4266backed Yes33c24,698$8,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,153.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes20c24,259$4,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,797.2840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes41c21,463$8,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,824.245248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes21c20,492$4,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,388.258450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No57c20,313$11,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,753.518552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes27c20,249$5,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,565.319647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes46c19,134$8,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,830.1620549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes53c18,102$9,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,602.9812038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3656…b4bbbacked No52c17,632$9,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,463.57475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+67.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0692…10fbbacked Yes36c17,361$6,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,183.561643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes17c16,911$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850.4442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x037a…c53ebacked No64c16,790$10,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,122.55887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c16,725$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes13c16,454$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.3636750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No40c15,968$6,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,585.9640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes17c14,416$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.451250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…fa31backed No60c14,398$8,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,829.161553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes6c14,000$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88417931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c13,991$10,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,469.9164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed No70c13,952$9,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,158.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-64.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No73c13,780$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,783.74771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+6.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes12c12,091$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.2328750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes14c11,891$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.025121.6%11 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes19c11,858$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.6619930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes33c11,604$3,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,854.658143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes15c11,175$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.547035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes28c10,111$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.793847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No69c9,693$6,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.165152.9%27 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7379…79f0backed No44c9,303$4,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,218.52650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No74c9,300$6,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4049145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd91a…f14bbacked No68c9,098$6,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.227100%7 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes17c8,918$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.011741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes54c8,811$4,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,738.46942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes25c8,500$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1104126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed No49c8,124$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,104.323619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb540…b343backed Yes31c7,838$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,396.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes33c7,523$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.86519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes34c7,350$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.984833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No70c7,159$5,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,128.132161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed Yes10c7,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes14c7,000$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-74.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaefb…11afbacked Yes72c6,895$4,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,977.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4324…a086backed No64c6,755$4,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes19c6,732$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.320736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes30c6,700$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ef…03efbacked No79c6,609$5,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.661172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed No32c6,372$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,325.577741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…cdbfbacked Yes14c6,287$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.783246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes56c6,232$3,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,467.732147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes16c6,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed No55c5,800$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5847045.7%32 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c5,708$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.5189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0210…7193backed No61c5,696$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7214…433bbacked No79c5,618$4,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.912759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes20c5,599$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.761323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c5,595$4,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes11c5,536$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.092222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+721.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes14c5,384$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.2610426%27 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+101.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes12c5,250$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.8928427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8715…c524backed Yes16c5,111$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No30c5,006$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,489.127233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No79c5,000$3,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.559154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f20…a05ebacked Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed No79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed No67c4,969$3,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.383534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0260…0d88backed No78c4,950$3,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.51050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.