TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x088f…c9e7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
262
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: UFC, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST8137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 81 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$80.55
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,907Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,906.93
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$710Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$709.82
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$68,576Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+45.1%+$30,930.93
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+117.4%+$139.14
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$78,585Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+36.4%+$28,615.38
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$110,547Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25.7%+$28,378.66
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$5,184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,184.39
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$162.73
U.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$219.77
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,847Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,846.77
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$817Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$817.34
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,078Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.7%+$928.92
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,926Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,926.38
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$123.98
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$42,425Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42,425.33
US strike on Syria by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$282.73
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$633.56
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$593.93
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10,711Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+26.3%+$2,815.07
Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,334Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$1,098.87
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,701Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,701.14
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,062Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$650.99
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$864Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$864.13
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$44,322Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+146.1%+$64,747.89
Showing 25 of 81 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST5642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43.9%+$99.94
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$6,448Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$6,448.28
US forces in Yemen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$869Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$869.02
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$7,446Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$7,445.79
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$252.65
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$467.32
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$348.8
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19,241Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+35.5%+$6,834.66
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,601Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+80.3%+$2,891.59
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$235.56
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,519Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+27.4%+$964.69
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,014Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$4,014.36
Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$142.43
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.25
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+161.9%+$338.76
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11,810Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+50.9%+$6,014.9
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14,128Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$5,644.19
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.35
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.12
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,377Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,376.81
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$5,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,446.66
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,612Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,612.26
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.65
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,587Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$501
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.39
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$5,294Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,293.59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$3,719Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,719.02
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,936Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$1,935.62
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$346.4
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$612Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.2%+$160.06
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,317.08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10,052Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10,051.99
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$4,465Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$4,465
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,627Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+25%+$406.7
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+26.9%+$23.9
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30.28
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+67.9%+$91.4
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,091Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,091.07
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18,372Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$18,371.65
Another NATO article 4 by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$731Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+34.4%+$251.52
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+94.7%+$184.8
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+32%+$130.18
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$221.4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$254.81
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$390.95
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,229Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+83.1%+$2,681.7
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$835Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+232.2%+$1,938.04
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,429Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+232.4%+$5,643.79
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,824Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+122.6%+$2,235.89
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,357Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+83.2%+$2,792.45
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Romanian politician Georgescu guilty in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+98.2%+$166.44
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 38% and 40%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 34% and 36%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$244
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+61.6%+$78.04
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$9,624Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$9,623.74
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$7,600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+38.2%+$2,906.02
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$131.79
Will Baluta flip Ciucu for Bucharest Mayor by Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$1,300
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+145.7%+$410.74
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$189.31
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$4,639Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,638.97
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$5,370Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$2,412.65
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10,143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,143.38
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$22,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$22,059.88
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$29,894Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$29,894.27
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$53,594Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+35%+$18,759.69
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$36,609Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+61.6%+$22,554.39
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$489.05
Will the next Pope be from Asia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$732Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+62.7%+$459.32
Will Crin Antonescu win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$329.6
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$11,392Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+68.6%+$7,818.16
Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,913Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,913.19
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$98,070Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+32.7%+$32,052.19
Will Crin Antonescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,608Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,608.25
Will Victor Ponta advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$75
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST2236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$696Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$696.2
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$961Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$960.66
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$7,148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$7,148.48
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$5,877Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$5,877.23
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12,149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12,148.52
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$6,192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$6,192.23
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+94.5%+$106.22
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,108Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+47.1%+$992
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,932Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+25%+$482.95
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,862Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,861.64
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$948Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+48.2%+$456.71
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+302.9%+$1,049.2
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,445Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,444.72
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,166.24
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,340Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+49.3%+$660
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$9,181Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+56.5%+$5,187.32
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,621Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$2,620.92
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$6,341Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$6,340.81
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,353Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$2,353.44
Over 40,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$91.12
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$6,014Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+68.3%+$4,106.76
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,856Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$4,856.08
All 22 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14,604Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+34.6%+$5,055.55
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$116.72
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20,575Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+26.5%+$5,448.1
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25,020Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+56.6%+$14,166.26
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11,004Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$11,003.91
Odds of Maduro out by March 31 on Friday over 50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$14,454Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14,453.62
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+79.1%+$143.96
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+53.8%+$17.5
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$8,607Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+29.7%+$2,552.53
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+93.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+77.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend UFC 319?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,538Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+25%+$634.53
UFC 319: Barboza vs. Klosebacked Klose · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+130.6%+$39.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$6,331Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+42.1%+$2,668.49
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$6,921Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$2,431.14
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$527.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.