Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c7efec3124bf1124c10d5d82221a1add1c1fd65c15100523ee2e3a1f97c2a55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $470,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $444,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 20c | 55,506$11,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,075.37 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 8c | 30,700$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.05 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked No | 4c | 14,922$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 80c | 14,833$11,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.14 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…a82cbacked No | 1c | 10,123$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…129ebacked No | 0c | 7,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…1314backed No | 2c | 7,033$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 55c | 6,492$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.59 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…52debacked No | 4c | 6,417$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 15c | 6,341$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 33c | 5,857$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.33 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed No | 9c | 5,329$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…9a71backed No | 10c | 5,219$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…d5babacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…6128backed No | 3c | 4,769$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed No | 8c | 4,627$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 50c | 4,050$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.73 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcab…b842backed No | 0c | 3,974$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…2edebacked No | 1c | 3,967$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3934…a067backed No | 4c | 3,903$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 51c | 3,491$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.38 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 33c | 3,354$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.61 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 21c | 3,315$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.4 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 62c | 3,100$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…3792backed No | 2c | 3,096$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a2…5643backed No | 4c | 3,049$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 4c | 3,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked No | 3c | 2,871$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed No | 5c | 2,816$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…4302backed No | 8c | 2,774$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6c…50ccbacked No | 23c | 2,539$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e20…57eabacked No | 6c | 2,436$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked No | 1c | 2,436$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…5e9abacked No | 6c | 2,420$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 48c | 2,417$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 33c | 2,300$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.91 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfb…1f69backed No | 32c | 2,245$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…78b0backed No | 5c | 2,091$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 2,056$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…9379backed No | 9c | 2,050$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 30c | 2,027$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.86 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…f4bcbacked No | 5c | 2,010$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 25c | 2,000$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.83 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…c286backed No | 1c | 1,882$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked No | 51c | 1,668$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 7c | 1,619$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…4927backed No | 4c | 1,553$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80fa…a69cbacked No | 1c | 1,537$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…78f1backed No | 7c | 1,502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed No | 32c | 1,500$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +101%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 51c | 1,476$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 4c | 1,463$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef47…6be1backed No | 4c | 1,446$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90f…62d6backed No | 5c | 1,426$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 47c | 1,405$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.35 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked No | 4c | 1,260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 68c | 1,255$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.05 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e45…b092backed No | 4c | 1,197$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 15c | 1,189$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.45 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…21d7backed Yes | 68c | 1,183$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 5c | 1,181$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed No | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…b394backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 5c | 1,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes | 69c | 1,091$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…4753backed No | 5c | 1,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…a93cbacked No | 5c | 1,073$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…8e25backed No | 2c | 1,047$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463c…b6fdbacked No | 4c | 1,016$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…6fa7backed Yes | 47c | 1,012$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…c48dbacked No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…2868backed No | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 13c | 994.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825f…0997backed No | 6c | 989.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 2c | 961.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 41c | 946.22$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.77 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 44c | 926.13$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 76c | 810.34$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…a4c0backed No | 9c | 777.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b8…ad36backed No | 4c | 746.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 4c | 736.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 706.22$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked No | 52c | 688$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 14c | 636.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 30c | 600$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 51c | 600$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.92 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7f…f1b3backed No | 6c | 590.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e2…8eedbacked No | 3c | 572.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…ede8backed No | 17c | 572.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…3049backed No | 6c | 560.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…d4ecbacked No | 3c | 559.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked No | 4c | 551.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 73c | 541.38$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…ee44backed No | 11c | 534.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked No | 11c | 509.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…0764backed No | 52c | 506.15$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No | 4c | 504.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked No | 48c | 490.96$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked No | 2c | 487.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?this page
- Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 18? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.