TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$470,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$444,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,641 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x993c…6787backed No20c55,506$11,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,075.3719236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No8c30,700$2,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,412.056230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked No4c14,922$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes80c14,833$11,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.147051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d0…a82cbacked No1c10,123$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a1…129ebacked No0c7,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x930e…1314backed No2c7,033$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes55c6,492$3,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,891.595642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x605d…52debacked No4c6,417$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked No15c6,341$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.42911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-78.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No33c5,857$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.3310145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09f0…1e82backed No9c5,329$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.34825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e86…9a71backed No10c5,219$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a36…d5babacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e0…6128backed No3c4,769$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed No8c4,627$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No50c4,050$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.734955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcab…b842backed No0c3,974$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…2edebacked No1c3,967$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3934…a067backed No4c3,903$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No51c3,491$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.3820446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No33c3,354$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.616241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No21c3,315$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.44729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes62c3,100$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18014241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb37c…3792backed No2c3,096$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23a2…5643backed No4c3,049$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No4c3,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1168750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked No3c2,871$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed No5c2,816$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c5…4302backed No8c2,774$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6c…50ccbacked No23c2,539$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e20…57eabacked No6c2,436$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfab4…564fbacked No1c2,436$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd3…5e9abacked No6c2,420$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1650%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed Yes48c2,417$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.52020%4 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked No33c2,300$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.911758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfb…1f69backed No32c2,245$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd241…78b0backed No5c2,091$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No5c2,056$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.91827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a54…9379backed No9c2,050$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No30c2,027$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.8613556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd277…f4bcbacked No5c2,010$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No25c2,000$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.8332626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ca…c286backed No1c1,882$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f10…cbbdbacked No51c1,668$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed No7c1,619$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.014926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ed…4927backed No4c1,553$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.88520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80fa…a69cbacked No1c1,537$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe358…78f1backed No7c1,502$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed No32c1,500$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.811752.9%9 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+101%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes51c1,476$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.044100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+118.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed No4c1,463$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef47…6be1backed No4c1,446$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa90f…62d6backed No5c1,426$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No47c1,405$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.3519638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2150…581bbacked No4c1,260$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes68c1,255$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.054731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e45…b092backed No4c1,197$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.89520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No15c1,189$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.454027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed Yes68c1,183$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.561369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+107.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No5c1,181$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.654557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe86c…bb51backed No9c1,124$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a3…b394backed No9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No5c1,100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.182817.9%5 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes69c1,091$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524a…4753backed No5c1,083$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e4…a93cbacked No5c1,073$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ac…8e25backed No2c1,047$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x463c…b6fdbacked No4c1,016$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.96425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6e…6fa7backed Yes47c1,012$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dca…c48dbacked No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb3…2868backed No46c1,000$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No13c994.78$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13014125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x825f…0997backed No6c989.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed No2c961.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No41c946.22$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.772944.8%13 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3838…2c6fbacked No44c926.13$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.02911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-85.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes76c810.34$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.866459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f57…a4c0backed No9c777.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b8…ad36backed No4c746.95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked No4c736.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.663122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No18c706.22$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.831840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…259dbacked No52c688$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.76250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No14c636.5$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.433641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed No30c600$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No51c600$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.922615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7f…f1b3backed No6c590.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52e2…8eedbacked No3c572.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x569d…ede8backed No17c572.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bff…3049backed No6c560.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3859…d4ecbacked No3c559.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked No4c551.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes73c541.38$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+59.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2f…ee44backed No11c534.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked No11c509.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-74.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fbe…0764backed No52c506.15$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No4c504.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.523435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x373c…afbcbacked No48c490.96$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked No2c487.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.