TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x017b…1ef4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
392
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 64 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT15429.9%46 W · 108 L+15.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+81.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Lol — the 154 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$644Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$644.38
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,341Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,341.28
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+1,035.8%+$812.7
LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.26
LoL: SK Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerbacked SK Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.54
LoL: Shifters vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Shifters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.64
LoL: Shifters vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winnerbacked Shifters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$1,918.7
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$548.99
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,129Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+1,189.6%+$13,434.35
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$806Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$806.19
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$460.52
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.72
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+3,233.3%+$1,470.96
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.18
LoL: LGD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$435.4
LoL: LGD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.88
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.96
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$889Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$888.8
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.4
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$258.13
LoL: Fnatic vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winnerbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$542Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$541.99
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.03
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$347.95
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winnerbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.02
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winnerbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.41
Showing 25 of 154 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT7820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 78 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.5
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$7.9
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+176%+$772.44
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$50.97
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.71
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+121%+$66.26
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.82
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+119.1%+$117.41
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+74.4%+$33.68
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.14
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$769Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$768.54
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+150%+$180
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.16
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.75
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.24
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$43.21
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.57
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$287.55
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.62
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.54
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.99
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.54
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.73
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.8
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 78 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT3537.1%13 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+47.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+60.1%+$13.72
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$37.03
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+1,566.7%+$282
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.23
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.11
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.22
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.66
Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+716.4%+$244.88
Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.05
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+183%+$261.86
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+208.4%+$57.87
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+88%+$175.36
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$7.3
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+143.7%+$464.64
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.52
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.83
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.7
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.92
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.7
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.14
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+166.2%+$100.54
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+84.4%+$262.18
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29%+$45
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.59
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.92
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$5.55
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.1
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.8
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.75
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$184
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$562Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$561.94
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$24.61
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$89.4
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,366Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,366.17
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$72.5
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+157%+$255.54
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+31.9%+$79.89
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+40.4%+$36.46
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+25.8%+$4.1
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+38.1%+$19.3
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+291.1%+$121.88
Will Trump say "Peace" or "Deal" 7+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10.75
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$40.9
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+45.5%+$27.57
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2944.8%13 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+70.6%+$197.37
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$205
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.61
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+40.8%+$17.4
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.73
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+71.7%+$9.3
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+141.9%+$35.2
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$76.3
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$385.77
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$78
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+207.7%+$40.5
Epstein disclosure bill/resolution enacted in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+162%+$131.91
Congress passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+127.3%+$112
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$122.03
Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?backed Senate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+40.8%+$10.41
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$42.06
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$252.27
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$81.87
Will 61 or more U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+86.8%+$197.61
Will Trump meet with Hakeem Jeffries in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.51
Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.99
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT2634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mykhailo Drapatyi be appointed as the next Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.97
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$591Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$591.23
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$106.25
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+285.2%+$43.01
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+26.2%+$21.8
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+60.5%+$75.36
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$188.51
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.4%+$5.28
Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.8%+$13.4
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+60%+$75
Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$900.3
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$33.1
More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$236.79
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.97
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$633Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+117.9%+$746.2
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$354.34
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+81.2%+$184.44
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.41
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1872.2%13 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.31per pick42cpaid+348.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$33.18
Will Starmer say "Anti-Semitism" or "Anti-Semitic" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+72%+$19.75
Will Starmer say "Jewish" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+70.3%+$37.23
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+435.4%+$456.18
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+55.5%+$89.19
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$30.34
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+73.9%+$8.5
Will Keir Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+5,341%+$748.99
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$22.61
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$21.41
Will Keir Starmer say "Christmas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+26.3%+$10.4
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questionsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+97.3%+$23.82
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+217.5%+$27.4
Will Keir Starmer say "Gentleman" or "Lady" 6+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+43.9%+$36.6
Will Keir Starmer say "Footing" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+53.5%+$9.16
Will Keir Starmer say "United Kingdom" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 18 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+835.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$545Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+835.3%+$4,551.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no Senate vote on an Epstein disclosure bill occur by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+31%+$42.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.