TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 18)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,596 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No0c5,047$15 inLost-$15.15219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed No24c435$104 inLost-$104.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes76c417$317 inWon+$100.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+166.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes76c256$195 inWon+$61.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick78cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5e0…bd10backed Yes79c252.15$200 inWon+$52.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No24c238$57 inLost-$57.12837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+71.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No22c77.5$17 inLost-$17.281526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No19c75.2$14 inLost-$13.961216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No14c74.14$10 inLost-$10.3812425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked No28c72.62$20 inLost-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes75c69.32$52 inWon+$17.127041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd680…2251backed No24c66.23$16 inLost-$16944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No24c52.79$13 inLost-$12.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x722c…1011backed Yes76c40$30 inWon+$9.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf256…3767backed Yes75c40$30 inWon+$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1699…e38cbacked Yes73c27.68$20 inWon+$7.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e8a…870cbacked Yes78c26.84$21 inWon+$5.84580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9997…a2bcbacked Yes76c26.32$20 inWon+$6.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes79c25.31$20 inWon+$5.326771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecc2…eeefbacked Yes79c24.84$20 inWon+$5.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes72c20$14 inWon+$5.63633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.