Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Anniversary" or "America250" this week? (January 18)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x696fe0f5e3e7dcab1ba352838418f2ba3d8c9e28189d08a0981418f7e65d8962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 37c | 541$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 37c | 472$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 63c | 472$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 37c | 437$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 63c | 437$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 63c | 281$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 63c | 260$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 99.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…b220backed Yes | 51c | 98.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 71.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…87bcbacked No | 69c | 57.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…eb2cbacked Yes | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bf…7860backed Yes | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed No | 51c | 25.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Anniversary" or "America250" this week? (January 18)this page
- Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Ass" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dancing in the street" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Eight and a Quarter War" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Fat" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Helicopter" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Low-IQ" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mental institution" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Minnesota" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Sean" or "Hannity" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Stupid person" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Switzerland" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Transition" this week? (January 18)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.