Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Low-IQ" this week? (January 18)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x613236eae9543ecbc61a0bf9ee3349976b64e8e0f786a6f380c14c4d8454c787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 60c | 772.13$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.99 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4c5abacked No | 48c | 514.77$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3230…1409backed No | 59c | 391.35$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 40c | 351.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 34c | 286.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…37babacked Yes | 20c | 244.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…a1f1backed No | 43c | 232.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 49c | 222.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed No | 44c | 179.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…521dbacked No | 67c | 168.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 38c | 161.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 55c | 141.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 56c | 110.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 44c | 109.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed No | 39c | 103.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed No | 65c | 102.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 20c | 100.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 52c | 99.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 40c | 93.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 58c | 91.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 55c | 78.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 40c | 74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 73.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…a496backed Yes | 34c | 66.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…f1f2backed Yes | 35c | 65.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45f…2bc9backed No | 43c | 63.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…4b4fbacked No | 57c | 62.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 80c | 59.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…9af1backed No | 44c | 52.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…669cbacked Yes | 20c | 49.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 46.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked No | 61c | 39.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b7…9be5backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed No | 79c | 35.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed No | 40c | 30.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…9d20backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375f…5a27backed No | 60c | 29.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…2ac9backed No | 69c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…8171backed Yes | 49c | 26.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 61c | 25.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…0ba0backed No | 62c | 24.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…80a2backed No | 55c | 23.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e3…b296backed No | 61c | 21.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…d22abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 65c | 17.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…d1bcbacked No | 80c | 17.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Low-IQ" this week? (January 18)this page
- Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Anniversary" or "America250" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Ass" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dancing in the street" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Eight and a Quarter War" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Fat" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Helicopter" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mental institution" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Minnesota" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Sean" or "Hannity" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Stupid person" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Switzerland" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Transition" this week? (January 18)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.