Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (January 18)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22adb8ab01c4676be0d2a8088fa0172461685e07c8056733f54ed6501e4fc57e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb76a…056cbacked No | 33c | 1,405$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…ba69backed Yes | 67c | 1,405$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 75c | 852.02$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed No | 12c | 827.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 13c | 625$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3420…300bbacked No | 22c | 453.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 19c | 377.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed No | 13c | 322$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 299.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 22c | 218.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 77c | 207.83$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 76c | 205$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed No | 48c | 183.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 74c | 169.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 13c | 167$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked No | 42c | 144$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 66c | 121.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…6a3cbacked No | 11c | 109.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 77c | 92.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…35b8backed Yes | 74c | 86.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 81.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed No | 27c | 74.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 80c | 60.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…d677backed No | 25c | 50.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…87bcbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…521dbacked No | 34c | 46.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 56c | 40.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…4d78backed No | 36c | 32.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…f2c4backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…5698backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…63ffbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…9ebabacked No | 58c | 17.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…c5cdbacked Yes | 76c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (January 18)this page
- Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Anniversary" or "America250" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Ass" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dancing in the street" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Eight and a Quarter War" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Fat" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Helicopter" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Low-IQ" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mental institution" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Minnesota" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Sean" or "Hannity" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Stupid person" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Switzerland" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Transition" this week? (January 18)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.