TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (January 18)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,276 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0241…162abacked Yes24c1,149$276 inLost-$275.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed No76c866$658 inWon+$207.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+129%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc80…7bd2backed No79c793$626 inWon+$166.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes21c626$131 inLost-$131.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes19c483$90 inLost-$89.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed No75c320$240 inWon+$801250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes8c253.33$21 inLost-$213321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes15c215.71$32 inLost-$32.362045%9 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No76c208$158 inWon+$49.92650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc4…e979backed Yes10c190.82$19 inLost-$18.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes17c150$25 inLost-$25.0312425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked No79c133$105 inWon+$27.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+94.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes21c133$28 inLost-$27.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked Yes21c124$26 inLost-$26.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked No76c75$57 inWon+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes28c67$19 inLost-$18.98911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-85.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No72c44$31 inWon+$12.541637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked No79c25$20 inWon+$5.251070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.