TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Eight and a Quarter War" this week? (January 18)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,786

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,053 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabd2…bcf5backed Yes7c3,000$210 inLost-$21020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x706c…7752backed Yes25c461.49$115 inLost-$114.88933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+1,596.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c213.99$169 inWon+$44.787537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e16…0bb0backed Yes11c159.51$17 inLost-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x597d…a1f1backed No72c138.95$100 inWon+$38.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes19c118.04$23 inLost-$22.7712425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa980…8080backed Yes22c111.73$24 inLost-$24.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef65…a496backed Yes15c99$15 inLost-$15.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes13c94.01$13 inLost-$12.684641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked Yes30c90.63$28 inLost-$27.530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes13c75$10 inLost-$10.115219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed43…c88ebacked No78c75$59 inWon+$16.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36a8…10c4backed Yes29c51$15 inLost-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3141…552cbacked No69c50$34 inWon+$15.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No73c43.99$32 inWon+$12.11637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No70c31.28$22 inWon+$9.382142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5a…e3e4backed No77c30.76$24 inWon+$7.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes36c30$11 inLost-$10.73063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa851…d3c4backed No58c29.71$17 inWon+$12.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No76c26.76$20 inWon+$6.562835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No70c21$15 inWon+$6.31392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.7wins+0.36per pick56cpaid+60.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc6e7…c793backed No68c15.16$10 inWon+$4.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.