TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Mental institution" this week? (January 18)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,985 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0562…9d66backed No2c1,800$40 inLost-$39.53030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No15c943.41$142 inLost-$142.081216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No3c600$18 inLost-$181414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e14…86f0backed No3c600$19 inLost-$19.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No41c538.54$223 inLost-$222.851637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb35a…c452backed No8c520$41 inLost-$40.5616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No3c504.93$15 inLost-$15.062157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c355$27 inLost-$26.831644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x597d…a1f1backed No32c314.06$101 inLost-$101.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes61c231.59$142 inWon+$89.993063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No8c230.59$17 inLost-$17.355219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No24c185.89$44 inLost-$44.1612425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed Yes76c153.25$117 inWon+$36.73100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No21c128.49$27 inLost-$26.514641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked No39c51.28$20 inLost-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes70c50$35 inWon+$15.23145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d5…57b7backed No52c50$26 inLost-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1acf…10babacked No55c36.36$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes69c31.15$21 inWon+$9.666771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9bb…5048backed Yes67c29.85$20 inWon+$9.851080%8 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+134.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.