Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 18)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xded43305ef6b7853258fae29c260b42c5eb5d52565b05631b1dabe28ce93c5de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefa6…6f53backed No | 5c | 8,067$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…ddbbbacked No | 18c | 1,650$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 61c | 799.59$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 25c | 797$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 75c | 662$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +182.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 55c | 605.42$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.23 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 75c | 492$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 62c | 427.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 25c | 385$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 33c | 357$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 67c | 357$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 56c | 349.68$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 78c | 330.3$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +4.6wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…a1f1backed No | 45c | 321.87$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 74c | 285$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 26c | 285$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 62c | 207.07$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…7842backed No | 44c | 100.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 40c | 94.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 58c | 79.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 73.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed Yes | 65c | 67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…0b6dbacked No | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 58c | 60.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 69c | 58.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Yes | 61c | 55.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…12d9backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…a88abacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 43.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 64c | 41.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 38.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b1…e593backed Yes | 60c | 33.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 35c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…5b83backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…bec3backed No | 54c | 27.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 42c | 27.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…0854backed Yes | 76c | 24.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…bf4abacked No | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 18)this page
- Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Anniversary" or "America250" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Ass" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dancing in the street" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Eight and a Quarter War" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Fat" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Helicopter" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Low-IQ" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Mental institution" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Minnesota" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Sean" or "Hannity" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Stupid person" this week? (January 18)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Switzerland" this week? (January 18)No won
- Will Trump say "Transition" this week? (January 18)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.