TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Ass" this week? (January 18)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,588 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfb7a…5619backed No78c3,333$2,600 inLost-$2,599.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9317…75d9backed Yes22c3,333$733 inWon+$2,599.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes77c1,151$892 inWon+$259.3113100%13 W · 0 L+4.6wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No13c307$40 inLost-$39.912114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No66c146.15$96 inLost-$96.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes35c109.48$39 inWon+$70.973063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes48c100.57$48 inWon+$52.162157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No54c100$54 inLost-$547537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No10c100$10 inLost-$10306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No10c100$10 inLost-$10230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No16c71$11 inLost-$11.36320%0 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No47c59.27$28 inLost-$27.8212425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes33c56.19$19 inWon+$37.515219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No80c50$40 inLost-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No54c44$24 inLost-$23.541637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8cc…ae8dbacked No62c42.18$26 inLost-$25.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked No54c40$22 inLost-$21.61070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd7…7842backed No59c33.75$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c30.96$12 inWon+$19.014641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed No72c30$22 inLost-$21.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc049…7269backed No60c16.75$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f7b…4a7fbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.