TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Stupid person" this week? (January 18)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,159
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,159 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes63c512.56$325 inWon+$187.3613100%13 W · 0 L+4.6wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes66c273$180 inWon+$92.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No34c273$93 inLost-$92.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+149.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x597d…a1f1backed No41c246.48$100 inLost-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked No34c172$58 inLost-$58.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes66c172$114 inWon+$58.48333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes60c167.5$101 inWon+$671353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No34c167$57 inLost-$56.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes66c167$110 inWon+$56.78837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+71.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54b…aa14backed No52c163.81$86 inLost-$86250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes55c150$83 inWon+$67.52045%9 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No36c100$36 inLost-$367537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed Yes64c80$51 inWon+$28.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No36c80$29 inLost-$28.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No33c71.87$23 inLost-$23.4512425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes47c61.67$29 inWon+$32.691566.7%10 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+110.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes57c53.08$30 inWon+$22.881216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed No42c48.13$20 inLost-$202045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No35c44$15 inLost-$15.181637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c38.68$17 inLost-$16.774641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…759ebacked Yes64c26.5$17 inWon+$9.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes60c23$14 inWon+$9.27041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes54c22.38$12 inWon+$10.395219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf01…a178backed No52c20$10 inLost-$10.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.