TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Dancing in the street" this week? (January 18)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,098 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x385f…3c30backed Yes33c553$182 inLost-$182.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed No67c459$308 inWon+$151.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6c…f00bbacked No67c166$111 inWon+$54.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a4…0b9ebacked No73c68.81$50 inWon+$18.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes33c62$20 inLost-$20.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes28c43.12$12 inLost-$11.9612425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No77c25.97$20 inWon+$5.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5b…4ef4backed No73c17.38$13 inWon+$4.63785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked No77c15$12 inWon+$3.451070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.