TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Fat" this week? (January 18)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,737 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf23e…aec3backed No55c567$312 inLost-$311.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaae6…3d05backed Yes45c542$244 inWon+$298.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No54c533$288 inLost-$287.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2111…667fbacked Yes46c533$245 inWon+$287.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+286.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes45c433$195 inWon+$238.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed No55c258$142 inLost-$141.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No55c228$125 inLost-$125.430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes49c192.06$93 inWon+$98.593063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes57c165.23$95 inWon+$70.3813100%13 W · 0 L+4.6wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xfda4…1058backed Yes45c78$35 inWon+$42.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No52c44$23 inLost-$22.661637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c43.65$15 inLost-$15.034641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf01…a178backed No56c40$22 inLost-$22.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No56c35.71$20 inLost-$206771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b72…dca9backed No56c35.4$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked No55c34$19 inLost-$18.71070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb9a…b801backed No62c32.22$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No47c30$14 inLost-$14.11216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes45c29.6$13 inWon+$16.37041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc806…ca96backed No54c27.65$15 inLost-$14.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7f…14d4backed No61c20.9$13 inLost-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb5…6baebacked No53c20$11 inLost-$10.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…5426backed No61c17.67$11 inLost-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14bd…0793backed No61c17.56$11 inLost-$10.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.