TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xee9e…efb7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
176
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$467Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$122.55
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$46.2
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.58
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$21.12
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$203.27
Will a contestant numbered 176 - 200 win Beast Games: Season 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$43.55
Will "Solo Mio" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$301.74
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$77
Will Paul Mescal win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$45.76
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$39.25
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$20.88
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$29.64
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$55.44
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.2
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$674.91
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+51.5%+$90.1
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$100.34
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$94
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$24.5
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$137.28
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$35.52
Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+49.3%+$61.71
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+257.1%+$338.4
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$77.49
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$64.63
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$47.12
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.48
Will Darko Rajakovic win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.61
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$505Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$504.8
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+297.6%+$860.74
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$182
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.83
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$546.65
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.52
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.78
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$31.19
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+100.8%+$101.4
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$83.76
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.35
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.8
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.2
Will the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.18
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$116
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.92
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+61.3%+$25.84
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$161.31
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+28.2%+$53.02
Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+566.7%+$149.6
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+31.7%+$131.54
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$334.89
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.9
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$119.93
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$635Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+164.6%+$1,044.44
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$117.64
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$295.47
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+75.4%+$156.95
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$159.25
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$388.24
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$177.23
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$278.11
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$11.22
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+212.5%+$301.24
Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.15
Will Israel strike 3 or more countries in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.92
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.58
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$58.28
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$49.84
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.7
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.51
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.75
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$688Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$229.25
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.29
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.93
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$136
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.54
Will PLN win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$102.22
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$31.8
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+57.5%+$10.95
Will Daniel Băluță get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+163.2%+$168.64
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+48.1%+$18.19
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+212.5%+$80.24
Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+900%+$171.9
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$188.46
All 16 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.99
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$20.88
Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.18
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$255.43
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+71.1%+$249.67
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+26.6%+$36.75
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+185.7%+$120.25
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$114.28
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+66.7%+$20.8
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$46.2
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$78.39
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20.74
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+49.3%+$7.92
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stefon Diggs arrested by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.16
Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$353.28
Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+25%+$28.2
Will Chris Shula be the next Giants Head Coach?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$77.22
Will John Harbaugh join the Cleveland Browns prior to April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100.47
Will Myles Garrett break the NFL sack record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$32.43
Will Kevin Stefanski be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$154.79
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+26.6%+$151.38
Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.66
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-60.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.37
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.1
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.24
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$196.88
Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.9
Will ETHGAS launch a token by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$99.75
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+69.5%+$264.86
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14.91
Over 55,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$11.06
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$703Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$703.33
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.66
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$361.12
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+61.5%+$123.75
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$11.89
Will Fredrick Love win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+104.1%+$227.46
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.92
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$248.39
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.37
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$158.26
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.32
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.08
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$167.17
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+30.2%+$89.09
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$33.5
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$281.3
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+92.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+156.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$562Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$252.34
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+95.3%+$40.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$137.34
5kt meteor strike in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer Leverkusen advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+66.7%+$152.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+61.3%+$100.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+25%+$144.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Senor Tilt be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$38.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$209.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$70.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.94
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.