TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$180,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$183,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf626…f9f0backed Yes7c14,872$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.67156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Yes19c5,000$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.372832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5194…cf3ebacked Yes26c3,620$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.4560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb33…c377backed Yes25c2,956$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7341675%12 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c2,325$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.192333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b5…2ef4backed Yes25c1,780$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc1…225bbacked Yes2c1,696$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No55c1,407$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea6…dbddbacked Yes24c1,384$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40da…2fe1backed Yes19c1,352$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.951040%4 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked Yes20c1,345$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No51c1,299$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes46c1,242$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.14825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b7f…2866backed Yes17c1,218$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No55c1,209$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.761546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No55c1,179$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c9…6649backed Yes9c1,145$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1da9…3710backed Yes25c1,100$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2753560%21 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,034$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d90…cf08backed Yes10c1,003$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes45c1,002$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes45c954$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes45c919$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.5560%0 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7c2…fcbebacked No54c919$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed No55c904$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No49c904$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes26c890$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes46c882$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes46c881$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.07862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+55.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde23…62e9backed Yes45c869$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes46c864$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.1230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No62c852$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No54c850$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed Yes45c837$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed No55c835$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.23837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed Yes46c822$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No54c809$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+109.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed Yes46c801$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.46742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes45c796$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.78560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes46c781$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.2660%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes32c772$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked No54c765$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.9450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No55c756$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd81…ae79backed No55c752$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed No55c748$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee5…27d8backed Yes24c712.49$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes45c710$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes45c695$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-81.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No54c694$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.241631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed No74c665$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed Yes45c665$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked Yes51c654$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Yes45c654$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes46c650$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No55c609$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.05966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+89.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes51c608$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes46c589$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.94650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes45c559$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No55c555$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.754100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+152.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No55c554$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed Yes45c553$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.851040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed No54c552$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed Yes46c550$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No54c550$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2531030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes45c522$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked No54c518$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.28944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked Yes26c518$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed Yes45c514$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes45c499$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.551145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked No55c498$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+77.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed Yes45c488$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes45c487$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed No54c479$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.34475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+241%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa232…175fbacked Yes46c478$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a4c…1ecebacked Yes23c475.83$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked Yes46c468$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed Yes45c466$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed Yes46c462$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+45.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes39c457.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.553174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No55c446$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No59c445$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+134.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No54c442$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+181%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4653…65c5backed Yes46c441$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No54c428$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No54c428$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.88922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-60.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0367…1c15backed No54c426$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed Yes46c426$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed No55c420$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed No55c417$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes46c409$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed No67c408$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.76955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c407.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.427663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked No54c403$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed Yes46c400$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed Yes45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed No55c397$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.65683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+42.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes7c384.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed No80c384$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed Yes19c383$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No74c379$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.