TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1ecb…b5e3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
165
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 58 out of 100; worst AI at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT2646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$27.14
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+71.2%+$126.44
Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.48
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$58.75
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$404.8
Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$95.48
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$102.6
Will Adolescence win Best Producer of a TV Limited or Anthology Series at the 37th PGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.04
Will "Hamnet" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$154.28
Will "2000 Meters To Andriivka" win Best Documentary at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$114.53
Will Geeta Gandbhir - The Perfect Neighbor win Best Director of a Documentary Film at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+104.1%+$38.76
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$29.54
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$128.92
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$35.96
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$113.04
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$142.94
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$90.48
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$180.36
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$215.08
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+49.3%+$23.76
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+112.8%+$27.77
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+122.2%+$79.2
Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$97.07
Will "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$115.75
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26.6%+$32.76
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$92.5
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.32
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$389.09
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$256.62
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.75
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$583Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$582.8
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+68.4%+$377.17
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.42
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$154.14
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+669.2%+$164.43
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+212.5%+$64.6
Will Trump say "Peace" 8+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+58.7%+$10.73
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+56.3%+$119.16
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$393Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$392.78
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+222.6%+$655.5
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$133.2
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$106.5
Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$64.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13.23
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$68.8
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.42
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$121.69
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$89.64
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$27.6
All 24 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.7
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+150%+$205.2
Will Anfernee Simons win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$207.87
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.66
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$378.84
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.32
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.28
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.8
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.12
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$244.86
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.86
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.94
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.68
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$22.04
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.72
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.64
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.47
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.25
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$25.8
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$118.58
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+28.2%+$55.22
All 22 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-55.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$182
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.25
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$34.84
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.07
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$54
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.86
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$242
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$55.32
Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$602Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$601.98
Will Hallow: Prayer & Meditation be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+26.6%+$11.13
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+97.2%+$443.11
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$151.76
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.75
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$172.26
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$230.46
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.89
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+35.3%+$6
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$103.98
All 18 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$736.92
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.5
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$102.52
Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$182.64
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$716.32
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$331.17
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76.72
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+41.9%+$50.2
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$256.05
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+66.7%+$104
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$304.74
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.21
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$102.55
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$16.2
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$226.18
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+51.5%+$64.26
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$47.6
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+124.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.32
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+400%+$1,071.2
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+168.8%+$455.93
Will Cristian Sanabria win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$451.4
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+33.3%+$140.75
Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+75.4%+$63.64
Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.08
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$33.49
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+809.1%+$331.08
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.39
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+66.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+152.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+103.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+28.2%+$17.16
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+40.8%+$93.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulane Green Wave vs. Memphis Tigers (W)backed Memphis Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$581Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$580.5
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$475.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$516.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+455.6%+$222.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$291.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$142.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ohnePixel win the PogChamps chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gen.G complete the League of Legends “Golden Road” in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$554Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$553.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$623Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$623.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$148.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$87.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$312.62
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.