Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd81f611670339738cb6ac259b94a54b5b08e372f19c063a8ad6fb2a8c7fe3ed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,514,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,502,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,514,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 548 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4b6…bfd5backed Yes | 1c | 86,300$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…c27bbacked Yes | 1c | 44,525$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…fd81backed Yes | 52c | 38,615$19,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…5b36backed Yes | 2c | 26,000$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 1c | 25,953$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ba…7a6ebacked Yes | 0c | 23,707$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +308.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 23,251$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.66 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 6c | 21,620$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 3c | 19,644$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.62 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 19,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 18,151$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.18 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 1c | 17,801$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 2c | 15,033$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.23 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 4c | 12,043$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.02 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 1c | 11,690$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 73c | 11,682$8,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,132.25 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 21c | 11,309$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…ed29backed Yes | 5c | 9,611$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,458$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked Yes | 1c | 9,091$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…e38cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +183.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…4addbacked Yes | 11c | 8,523$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,293$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.45per pick | 24cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…5948backed Yes | 1c | 7,904$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 7,691$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.14 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 5c | 7,670$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.56 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191c…f0b4backed Yes | 3c | 7,276$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 70c | 7,200$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 24c | 7,039$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.51 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebf…bf3abacked Yes | 22c | 7,000$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +1,193.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked Yes | 34c | 6,625$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 17c | 6,189$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.01 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 1c | 6,166$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -9.6wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 20c | 6,146$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…bc09backed Yes | 3c | 6,030$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 11c | 6,026$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd66b…1220backed Yes | 18c | 5,930$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 5,865$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,512.34 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 78c | 5,683$4,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.54 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 11c | 5,612$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.09 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed No | 80c | 5,260$4,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.91 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 2c | 5,259$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +522.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 1c | 5,051$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…5384backed Yes | 21c | 5,001$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb92…2dd5backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cc…709bbacked Yes | 12c | 4,874$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…03b5backed Yes | 2c | 4,760$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +262.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,756$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.18 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 77c | 4,725$3,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.35 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 15c | 4,567$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.88 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef7…9ae8backed Yes | 5c | 4,538$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 78c | 4,506$3,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.33 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 4,415$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…0db0backed Yes | 12c | 4,358$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 13cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…c9f6backed Yes | 7c | 4,289$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…b823backed Yes | 1c | 4,208$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…f748backed Yes | 1c | 4,014$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…c76bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,897$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…9120backed Yes | 5c | 3,819$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +210.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 2c | 3,740$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3afc…4ae6backed Yes | 0c | 3,720$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 76c | 3,530$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.32 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 24c | 3,444$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.28 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 3,323$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.98 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 3,287$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 5c | 3,041$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.03 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 78c | 3,000$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.99 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 78c | 2,948$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.63 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,887$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdb…d1b6backed Yes | 18c | 2,841$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,771$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 16c | 2,766$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.46 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…cecdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,625$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,608$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.87 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,585$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.05 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc594…9c16backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 7c | 2,494$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…d501backed Yes | 3c | 2,487$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,439$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…6924backed No | 80c | 2,345$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 1c | 2,342$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 17c | 2,339$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.8 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 20c | 2,297$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.06 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 22c | 2,270$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.4 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 6c | 2,259$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.9 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…e8aabacked No | 78c | 2,239$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac90…5d06backed No | 76c | 2,202$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.19 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,190$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…48b9backed Yes | 23c | 2,141$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2223…f7f9backed Yes | 2c | 2,130$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…aa56backed Yes | 13c | 2,070$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…28f8backed Yes | 17c | 2,056$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?this page
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.