Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2fc7ad04414ad58b0d122558de5e8784c38a024a038cc08de54fd8a9cebb1ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…7271backed Yes | 11c | 2,458$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…9b82backed Yes | 2c | 2,094$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 6c | 2,001$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,563$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…638abacked Yes | 2c | 1,321$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…8224backed Yes | 2c | 1,142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…3da4backed Yes | 9c | 1,112$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…3471backed Yes | 1c | 1,004$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.49per pick | 11cpaid | +983.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3f11backed Yes | 2c | 800.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6295…5912backed Yes | 9c | 330.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 4c | 286.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…feb7backed Yes | 7c | 194.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…5e82backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026?this page
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.