Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7886829f415e00ab97b695a28b5747c6bce1f8ab09635a51ec6480e5d50314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,495,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,334,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,495,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 898 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 1c | 61,000$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.31 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 11c | 41,935$4,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,535.15 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 70c | 34,168$23,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,168.04 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 25,349$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.98 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd869…50a4backed Yes | 6c | 23,947$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…916ebacked Yes | 11c | 23,849$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 4c | 20,852$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 22c | 18,993$4,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,271.49 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…28f8backed Yes | 39c | 17,091$6,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,628.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 38c | 16,626$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…5b36backed Yes | 7c | 16,493$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…2d47backed Yes | 3c | 15,410$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…b87fbacked Yes | 8c | 15,370$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 14,577$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.38 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 6c | 13,311$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 71c | 13,122$9,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,740.77 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…9cf1backed No | 78c | 12,841$10,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,777.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…3f47backed Yes | 0c | 12,476$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 8cpaid | +667.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…e923backed Yes | 13c | 12,000$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…6ebfbacked Yes | 9c | 11,012$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.77 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Yes | 3c | 10,971$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 30c | 10,037$3,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,012 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 23c | 9,811$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.51 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 28c | 9,338$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 4c | 9,094$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.76 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 29c | 9,019$2,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,605.05 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 62c | 8,106$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,105.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 29c | 8,072$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.69 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 8,036$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.03 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…03b5backed Yes | 10c | 7,987$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +262.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 1c | 7,565$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +863.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191c…f0b4backed Yes | 12c | 7,542$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…c9f6backed Yes | 19c | 7,376$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…c76bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,283$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.34 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 80c | 7,161$5,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.59 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…7ad5backed Yes | 3c | 6,824$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.69 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 6c | 6,786$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.84 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…d424backed Yes | 15c | 6,452$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 64c | 6,400$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,311.36 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 72c | 6,000$4,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.6 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 23c | 5,744$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.24 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 9c | 5,577$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.89 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,404$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…f0b4backed Yes | 4c | 5,275$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…c68bbacked Yes | 11c | 5,011$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 67c | 4,994$3,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 50c | 4,968$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 27c | 4,835$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.32 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 76c | 4,704$3,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.34 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 36c | 4,693$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.6 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 69c | 4,600$3,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.97 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 5c | 4,581$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.29 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8072…0ef3backed Yes | 7c | 4,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed No | 64c | 4,045$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.01 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 66c | 3,951$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.37 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb585…53edbacked No | 78c | 3,863$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…5384backed Yes | 18c | 3,813$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 3,646$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.07 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 32c | 3,533$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.81 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,500$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.92 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 10c | 3,418$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,330$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.2 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 17c | 3,216$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.86 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 21c | 3,141$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.9 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…c27bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,072$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5981backed Yes | 9c | 2,965$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…450abacked Yes | 24c | 2,943$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…90f1backed Yes | 29c | 2,906$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,850$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0602…76bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,779$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…a93cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,772$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…f7b8backed Yes | 6c | 2,769$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe430…9660backed Yes | 4c | 2,763$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…ab80backed Yes | 39c | 2,697$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.32 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…7970backed Yes | 6c | 2,667$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 16c | 2,621$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.86 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…8028backed Yes | 39c | 2,553$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d81…06edbacked Yes | 10c | 2,422$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed Yes | 21c | 2,386$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…e8aabacked No | 65c | 2,343$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…ed29backed Yes | 6c | 2,333$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…f444backed Yes | 3c | 2,298$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…b4c3backed Yes | 22c | 2,266$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 22c | 2,261$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.28 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…680dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5510backed No | 79c | 2,200$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.79 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 23c | 2,200$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes | 29c | 2,183$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…01f7backed Yes | 6c | 2,126$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,101$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.93 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…3c26backed Yes | 12c | 2,098$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 2,067$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.61 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6f…14dbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,060$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,056$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.59 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…79febacked Yes | 15c | 2,046$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…a48fbacked No | 73c | 2,034$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…bc09backed Yes | 10c | 2,020$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 5c | 2,010$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?this page
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.