TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc487…ab80

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Middle East, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 62 out of 100; worst La Liga at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT7458.1%43 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 74 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$397.2
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.72
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.05
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.55
Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.53
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$37.96
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$35
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$75.45
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.77
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$366.01
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$60
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$64.3
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$86.57
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$133.33
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$88.85
Showing 25 of 74 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2556%14 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.21per pick35cpaid+31.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,998Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,997.63
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+136%+$307.37
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+190.9%+$483.76
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$528Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$294.65
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+88%+$376.85
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+227.7%+$148.01
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+92.6%+$330.48
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$280.95
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$42.55
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,044Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,044.32
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?backed Leadership Change · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+25%+$103.06
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+63.9%+$63.93
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+144.5%+$144.48
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+115.2%+$433.56
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+185.7%+$92.86
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+308.3%+$154.17
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$14.85
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$145
All 25 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$202
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$154
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$158.13
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$73.11
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$51.85
All 10 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.