Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c09232d356fdbe5e4e543ce1a4e90c84a6e3bd4668a24852fd25563e36b32a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,166,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,950,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,166,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 656 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 111,900$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.41 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked No | 9c | 87,500$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,499.92 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 23c | 81,106$18,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,371.66 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 15c | 61,712$9,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,309.22 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc6…cba3backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…faffbacked No | 12c | 50,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,999.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 0c | 47,051$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed No | 68c | 45,775$31,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,600.91 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 44,928$35,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,420.59 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb27a…2b17backed No | 21c | 36,859$7,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,258.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.2wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +597%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 52c | 35,186$18,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,934.82 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d8…762dbacked Yes | 0c | 29,998$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed No | 15c | 29,218$4,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,693.92 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed No | 12c | 29,000$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,429.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…4acebacked Yes | 15c | 28,284$4,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,302.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked No | 15c | 26,826$3,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,909.22 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.39per pick | 15cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed No | 24c | 24,844$5,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,004.14 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 13c | 23,156$3,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,128.14 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 21,949$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 78c | 20,117$15,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,716.13 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 32c | 20,000$6,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,638.89 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 79c | 19,965$15,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,815.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 16c | 18,299$3,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,287.43 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 13c | 18,062$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,719.72 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 25c | 17,903$4,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,350.79 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 58c | 17,069$9,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,144.83 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 16c | 17,000$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,340 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 17c | 14,540$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,006.85 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 64c | 13,005$8,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,376.89 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 49c | 12,474$6,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,161.93 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…88a8backed No | 33c | 12,455$4,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,398.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 12c | 12,323$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,876.58 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 63c | 12,168$7,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,635.98 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 64c | 11,712$7,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,503.74 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 22c | 10,539$2,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,201.42 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 10,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 40c | 10,209$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,156.5 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed No | 10c | 9,421$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,473.77 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 36c | 9,417$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,037.83 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 13c | 9,227$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,018.91 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…e774backed Yes | 71c | 8,675$6,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,156.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…9d21backed Yes | 70c | 8,405$5,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,862 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 79c | 8,396$6,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,656.69 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked No | 10c | 7,730$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,961.16 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 66c | 7,598$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 16c | 7,573$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,342.32 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 14c | 7,557$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,510.28 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 23c | 6,573$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,073.17 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 6,384$3,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.79 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 12c | 6,023$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,299.43 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 11c | 6,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,340 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed No | 13c | 5,570$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,870.16 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,456$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,443$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 17c | 5,411$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,506.71 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 78c | 5,398$4,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,232.97 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed No | 17c | 5,388$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,472.24 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 16c | 5,133$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,306.78 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 65c | 5,000$3,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,259.99 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 50c | 4,820$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.66 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 65c | 4,808$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,124.88 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked No | 32c | 4,446$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,025.72 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 30c | 4,277$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.48 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…d004backed No | 14c | 4,259$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,658.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 25cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 31c | 4,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 59c | 3,949$2,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.76 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…a98fbacked No | 52c | 3,848$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,480.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 16c | 3,799$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,195.24 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed No | 8c | 3,750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 74c | 3,741$2,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,770.67 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 29c | 3,613$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.57 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e42abacked No | 31c | 3,600$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,492 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 7c | 3,508$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,278.88 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…0cf1backed No | 50c | 3,382$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +166.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed Yes | 74c | 3,304$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,453.01 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked No | 8c | 3,279$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,031.57 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 77c | 3,250$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,502.5 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed No | 16c | 3,231$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.3 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 3,153$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.96 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 47c | 3,136$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.47 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 70c | 3,130$2,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 41c | 3,110$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.95 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…f2cfbacked Yes | 51c | 3,061$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.24 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed No | 13c | 3,056$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.56 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…bf59backed No | 8c | 3,006$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.51per pick | 12cpaid | +390.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 71c | 3,000$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.75 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,970$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked No | 35c | 2,900$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.98 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 37c | 2,864$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.68 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 2,779$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,716.38 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…82e2backed No | 15c | 2,671$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 11c | 2,638$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,347.88 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…055ebacked No | 30c | 2,598$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1766…de73backed No | 31c | 2,558$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 29c | 2,552$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.39 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 2,536$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,507.88 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd041…3e97backed No | 26c | 2,525$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed No | 17c | 2,500$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed Yes | 68c | 2,500$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -9.8wins | -0.32per pick | 67cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.