Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa743ce4a2a42aa232c2caa41aa27837ff1cde07781a1e9a726342065c3d86ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,013,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,554,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,013,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 578 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 0c | 677,799$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.44 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed No | 59c | 243,374$143,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,352.35 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 1c | 113,000$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.46 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 5c | 98,136$4,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,492.29 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 49c | 92,796$45,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,988.5 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 55c | 91,414$50,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,724.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed Yes | 11c | 71,667$7,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,861.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed No | 1c | 69,459$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,733.42 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 1c | 64,947$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,283.9 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 17c | 58,803$10,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,703.12 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 42c | 53,709$22,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,777.62 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 3c | 46,491$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,982.83 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 2c | 45,940$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 68c | 43,083$29,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,084.45 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 45c | 41,784$18,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,841.04 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked Yes | 0c | 41,693$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Yes | 1c | 39,000$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 7c | 30,740$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,712.85 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…bc78backed No | 10c | 28,084$2,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,144.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 65c | 26,282$17,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,029.21 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 2c | 25,994$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,375.67 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0d…4999backed Yes | 1c | 25,032$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 5c | 25,000$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,845.74 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked No | 3c | 24,800$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,096.67 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 13c | 24,767$3,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,272.85 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 1c | 23,866$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…f2c5backed No | 5c | 23,768$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,629.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +493.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked No | 7c | 23,087$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,520.39 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 22,100$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…fc85backed Yes | 1c | 20,613$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…533abacked Yes | 0c | 20,047$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…23c5backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed No | 23c | 19,488$4,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,066.1 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 19,462$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,097.59 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 4c | 19,195$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,344.53 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 2c | 18,241$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.13 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…a98fbacked No | 1c | 17,779$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,579.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +1,480.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…d4bcbacked No | 48c | 16,727$7,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,730.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 50c | 16,434$8,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,296.69 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…ec63backed No | 6c | 16,339$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,339.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +717%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 12c | 16,099$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,187.73 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 0c | 16,027$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…666fbacked No | 9c | 15,672$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,332.46 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…ac46backed Yes | 0c | 15,437$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +269.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…02ddbacked Yes | 2c | 15,281$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Yes | 65c | 15,000$9,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,791.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 48c | 14,506$6,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,993.92 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 3c | 13,584$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 1c | 13,571$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,374.42 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 12,705$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.91 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 24c | 12,228$2,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,311.39 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 12,043$6,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,039.74 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed No | 17c | 12,006$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,006.24 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 75c | 11,653$8,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910.41 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…ec4fbacked No | 1c | 11,527$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,416.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +1,142.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 13c | 11,170$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.23 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes | 4c | 11,025$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.97 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked No | 1c | 10,886$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,754.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed No | 10c | 10,704$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,591.09 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 3c | 10,557$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 2c | 10,515$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.58 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…2453backed Yes | 5c | 10,508$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…9172backed Yes | 0c | 10,470$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 7c | 10,157$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.84 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 23c | 10,045$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.55 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,900 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…944bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…0d8bbacked No | 11c | 9,998$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,911.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 2c | 9,884$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…511bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,485$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 13c | 9,403$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,156.92 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f2…f9bfbacked Yes | 0c | 9,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…b2febacked Yes | 2c | 8,893$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955b…067ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,886$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed No | 2c | 8,607$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,406.84 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…414bbacked No | 75c | 8,461$6,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.85 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 2c | 8,374$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 64c | 8,316$5,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,288.75 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…19a9backed No | 1c | 8,170$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,090.33 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +590.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 3c | 8,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 11c | 7,675$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,794.6 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 4c | 7,511$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,241.3 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ba…5707backed No | 1c | 7,325$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,225.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +1,740.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 3c | 7,288$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,034.83 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 62c | 7,000$4,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,638 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc312…5e62backed No | 21c | 7,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,550 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 2c | 6,901$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 74c | 6,851$5,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,038.55 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 5c | 6,805$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,434.19 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed Yes | 3c | 6,529$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ef…f4d4backed Yes | 2c | 6,408$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…a1edbacked No | 16c | 6,338$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,337.71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 4c | 6,241$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,990.14 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed No | 9c | 6,134$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,555.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…387fbacked No | 10c | 6,038$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,406.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…f57bbacked No | 1c | 5,993$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,933.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +1,013.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed No | 1c | 5,922$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,854.05 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,800$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +148%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bd15backed No | 1c | 5,712$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,632.03 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +257%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.