Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa025157628d2824a12bb4b3aa8476cbe1ffebfb7d983d9fc7dfaf906381084f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $363,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $386,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 49c | 52,498$25,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,600.15 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68aa…ea5ebacked Yes | 1c | 26,472$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 23,609$13,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,514.72 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 42c | 16,454$6,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,935.4 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 55c | 16,294$8,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,950 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 28c | 14,357$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.06 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed No | 36c | 12,507$4,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,004.34 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 42c | 12,500$5,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,205 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 74c | 10,000$7,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 53c | 9,770$5,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,225.83 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 49c | 9,196$4,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,715.45 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 56c | 8,155$4,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,555.71 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 56c | 6,600$3,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,893.24 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…86cfbacked No | 69c | 6,490$4,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 55c | 6,294$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820.39 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 39c | 6,002$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.92 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 30c | 4,594$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…e559backed Yes | 61c | 4,037$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,534$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.6 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 33c | 3,373$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c26…a23cbacked No | 43c | 3,225$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,899$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,857$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 2,767$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.88 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,730$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.91 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 32c | 2,497$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.13 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 63c | 2,458$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.85 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked No | 47c | 2,325$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.2 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +12.3wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 63c | 2,231$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…7d09backed No | 63c | 2,136$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb441…c7fbbacked No | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 39c | 2,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.99 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 68c | 1,939$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.67 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed No | 62c | 1,812$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,800$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 34c | 1,800$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…8513backed No | 65c | 1,643$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab49…34e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,629$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654a…cc32backed Yes | 64c | 1,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970a…9dc8backed No | 63c | 1,558$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 76c | 1,500$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b8…3debbacked No | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.54 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…f183backed No | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 36c | 1,464$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 62c | 1,390$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.61 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…2849backed No | 64c | 1,332$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…693ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,321$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 43c | 1,268$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.17 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 27c | 1,250$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 42c | 1,215$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.81 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 63c | 1,210$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.8 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 64c | 1,200$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.25 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…cdcdbacked No | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 41c | 1,107$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.09 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…c7c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 74c | 999.99$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Yes | 3c | 978.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 962.47$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.98 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked No | 39c | 910$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.47 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 46c | 843.26$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.36 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed No | 41c | 805.69$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.3 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 10c | 800$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802c…6120backed No | 38c | 786.39$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +183.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 48c | 773.85$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.79 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 45c | 741.95$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.21 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 55c | 703.66$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.65 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…deb0backed Yes | 57c | 700.18$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.55 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed No | 79c | 629.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.34 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…4877backed No | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 64c | 591.21$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.53 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1721…2611backed Yes | 36c | 562.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 47c | 547.3$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.23 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…26ebbacked No | 72c | 543.55$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…362bbacked Yes | 36c | 536.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 40c | 530$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.7 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393b…6899backed No | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc90…90b0backed No | 66c | 518$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed No | 41c | 506.68$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 76c | 500.24$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8a…5771backed Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f57…bf51backed No | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +4.6wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +95%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed Yes | 59c | 468.18$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.23 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Yes | 63c | 464.54$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 43c | 460.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 62c | 460.34$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…5db0backed Yes | 63c | 450$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155f…6e6bbacked Yes | 63c | 450$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 34c | 443.82$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.96 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?this page
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?No won
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.