TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe472…e7eb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT6459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$88
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+525%+$201.6
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$4.58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.21
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$104
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$69
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$42,312Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$17,515.47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$32,982Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+102.1%+$33,681.12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$633Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+358.4%+$2,267.3
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13,972Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,972.2
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15,784Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$5,893.13
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$314
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22,158Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$10,655.97
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$431.98
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,477Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,476.99
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$786Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$786.3
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,865Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$1,835
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+225.2%+$238.69
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,095.24
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,434Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+57.7%+$1,405.51
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.25
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$154
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$58
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$8.03
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.71
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-36.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$7,611Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,611.16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,285Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+48.8%+$1,114.56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$59.2
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+27.9%+$112.92
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.41
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.31
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.43
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.05
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-70.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,332Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,331.98
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$314
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$875Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$874.7
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,477Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,477
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,897Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$1,457.61
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.73
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$649Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$174.41
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaelsbacked Saint Mary's Gaels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11,899Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11,899.2
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7,000
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksbacked Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12,400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7,600
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhornsbacked North Carolina State Wolfpack · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,500
All 4 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.