Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,036,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,513,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,036,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 11,406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd953…e8e9backed No | 0c | 1,453,508$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…b194backed No | 0c | 1,240,000$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,728.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…229cbacked No | 0c | 1,158,015$3,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,128.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 24c | 1,075,877$262,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813,820.56 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e34abacked No | 0c | 1,000,500$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…f0adbacked No | 49c | 972,931$475,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475,789.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 43c | 956,681$415,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541,567.67 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 45c | 660,591$300,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360,056.48 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 65c | 616,436$403,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213,174.02 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed No | 23c | 543,149$125,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125,668.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 44c | 426,322$186,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239,416.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked No | 3c | 418,690$13,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,120.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 37c | 366,201$135,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230,888.49 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 63c | 362,628$227,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227,558.63 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 70c | 348,908$244,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104,902.87 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa551…e050backed Yes | 22c | 331,246$71,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259,365.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…4d32backed No | 0c | 310,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 38c | 289,602$110,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178,987.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…3047backed No | 0c | 273,500$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 18c | 272,094$49,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222,577.96 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 41c | 266,281$107,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158,325.74 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 35c | 246,813$86,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160,350.67 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5882…55a2backed No | 5c | 243,914$12,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,915.23 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…1076backed No | 0c | 235,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 41c | 231,438$95,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135,840.58 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 56c | 218,703$122,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96,087.59 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 34c | 216,464$74,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142,177.59 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…00f8backed No | 53c | 216,238$115,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115,326.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6000…f302backed No | 15c | 211,228$32,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,633.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 54c | 209,367$113,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,683.5 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 28c | 207,075$58,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148,605.55 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 33c | 204,554$67,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137,089.43 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…9de4backed No | 43c | 202,975$86,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86,341.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 67c | 199,744$134,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,633.78 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 69c | 195,995$134,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,518.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…80f5backed No | 0c | 195,960$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…2e9abacked No | 64c | 187,572$120,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120,135.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked No | 0c | 180,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f3d3backed No | 44c | 179,998$79,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,389.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 11c | 179,857$19,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,099.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…a568backed No | 34c | 176,181$60,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,483.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 37c | 172,798$63,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,431.35 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 172,075$92,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,530.76 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 43c | 166,031$70,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,257.72 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 27c | 156,169$41,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114,485.24 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…a443backed No | 0c | 154,229$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…4717backed No | 65c | 151,760$98,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,490.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 45c | 143,226$64,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,885.85 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…736bbacked No | 27c | 141,009$38,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,234 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…8510backed No | 54c | 138,111$74,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,664.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 41c | 131,595$53,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,964.57 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 23c | 127,832$29,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,175.02 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…a593backed Yes | 37c | 127,677$46,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,933.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes | 16c | 127,341$20,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106,400.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 41c | 124,714$51,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,983.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 28c | 120,420$33,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,742.45 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…f13ebacked No | 45c | 118,028$53,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,558.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 33c | 116,789$38,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,341.11 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 59c | 113,427$67,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,412.85 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…fb0ebacked No | 61c | 109,974$67,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,236 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…77eebacked No | 29c | 108,675$31,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,451.81 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 29c | 105,894$30,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,338.21 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…cf03backed No | 0c | 102,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…e982backed No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…1601backed No | 0c | 99,576$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked No | 43c | 99,157$42,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,637.45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5324backed No | 64c | 97,396$62,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,041 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…d340backed No | 75c | 96,944$72,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,780 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…1eadbacked No | 1c | 96,329$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 41c | 93,922$38,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,241.01 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 47c | 93,033$43,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,638 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 53c | 92,630$49,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,325.14 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 59c | 92,486$54,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,553.91 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 52c | 92,406$47,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,476.32 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…6b2abacked No | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 49c | 89,335$43,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,478.7 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…5095backed No | 56c | 87,502$49,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,001.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…599ebacked No | 77c | 86,948$66,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,789.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 66c | 86,000$56,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,071.19 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed No | 76c | 85,902$65,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,583.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…eab9backed No | 56c | 84,023$47,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,080.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 51c | 83,592$42,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,317.08 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3031…4439backed No | 0c | 82,747$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe48…683fbacked No | 73c | 82,486$60,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,000 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes | 26c | 81,676$21,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,389.82 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…29ddbacked Yes | 36c | 80,186$29,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,987.03 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cf…0cebbacked No | 67c | 79,592$52,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,937 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed No | 62c | 77,051$48,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,122.02 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 40c | 75,313$29,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,351.46 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…3a4fbacked No | 46c | 73,646$33,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,976 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…d552backed Yes | 38c | 73,329$27,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,403.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…4887backed Yes | 34c | 71,570$24,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,901.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0122backed No | 18c | 71,509$13,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,033 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 35c | 70,335$24,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,602.45 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…369ebacked No | 58c | 69,992$40,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,729.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…22e1backed Yes | 61c | 69,611$42,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,401.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 29c | 68,868$19,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,900.36 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 25c | 67,235$16,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,716.34 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…9ad1backed Yes | 69c | 66,707$46,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,679.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 49c | 66,663$32,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,681.12 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.