TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa372…1b3e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
81
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-29.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$134,477Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+45.7%+$61,518.12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21,226Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+176.7%+$37,500.96
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26,341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26,340.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$551.72
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,941Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,940.67
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14,105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,104.53
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15,315Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+65.9%+$10,099.42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$3,007Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$6,692.99
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13,349Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,349.11
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.93
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$7,408Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,407.67
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$194
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$5,816Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,815.84
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$6,762Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+667.2%+$45,115.55
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16,054Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16,053.99
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$7,535Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,535
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$8,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,299.99
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$370.05
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$31,000.33
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$5,377Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,377.02
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19,663Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,663.28
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$2,601Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,601.31
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19,417Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,416.61
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$276.23
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$700
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$88
Will the government shutdown end November 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,464Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,463.84
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,747Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,747
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$22.22
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+413.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick4cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$29.79
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+669.2%+$351.48
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$380
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,260Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,260
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$223.18
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$231.55
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST70%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-65.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+33.3%+$75.5
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$314.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$22.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.