Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cd53c5a833fa34db56d219593c1e65bafd96ffa6b6067f6ebb69fadcf43b8b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 7c | 4,899$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.89 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 18c | 3,849$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.27 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 12c | 3,508$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.16 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 17c | 3,263$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.74 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 17c | 2,502$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.77 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…df5fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,221$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 7c | 2,113$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…4453backed Yes | 15c | 2,077$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…ec03backed Yes | 7c | 1,951$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 17c | 1,763$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.16 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 18c | 1,667$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 7c | 1,621$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 8c | 1,201$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 13c | 953.74$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 930$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 14c | 840.58$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed No | 76c | 800$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 713.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 14c | 685.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 9c | 629.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…e914backed Yes | 13c | 599.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 11c | 589.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 527.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 23c | 516.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 4c | 511.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 4c | 505$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 24c | 422.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 396.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 9c | 390.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 16c | 349.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…cadabacked Yes | 6c | 275.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…e49abacked Yes | 7c | 250.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…de81backed Yes | 11c | 236.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…b072backed Yes | 9c | 233.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Yes | 15c | 218.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…ae19backed Yes | 13c | 203.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 17c | 188.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 13c | 184.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +359.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 15c | 182$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 80c | 169$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…0383backed Yes | 16c | 152.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 12c | 137.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 124.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…0afabacked Yes | 11c | 122.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 12c | 122.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…4a75backed Yes | 20c | 119.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…32a0backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed Yes | 10c | 105.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4e…15d8backed Yes | 12c | 105.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa688…5f80backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…9ff2backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…49ddbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…cb20backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba3…f017backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.