Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a704215355775b2f71e6e957375a73c4a4892463f95865b1af853600abe737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 21,686$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.92 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 5,078$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.67 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 8c | 3,527$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.09 | 228 | 34.6%79 W · 149 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 3c | 3,420$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 14c | 2,762$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 11c | 2,610$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 2,600$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.6 | 202 | 31.7%64 W · 138 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,559$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 2c | 1,396$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb7…5b4bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,247$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…ec03backed Yes | 4c | 1,204$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 23c | 1,169$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…e49abacked Yes | 3c | 1,169$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…e914backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 871.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 14c | 846$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 3c | 698.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…b072backed Yes | 3c | 678.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d3…75e8backed Yes | 6c | 636.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 11c | 631.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 13c | 580$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 19c | 539.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 9c | 507.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 445.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…b05abacked Yes | 6c | 416.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…0afabacked Yes | 24c | 395.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 14c | 337.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 18c | 333$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 5c | 331$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 326.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 16c | 299.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…9a98backed Yes | 20c | 230$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…2453backed Yes | 6c | 207$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes | 18c | 199.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…f882backed Yes | 18c | 167.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…ed73backed Yes | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…3a87backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…5f4abacked Yes | 10c | 114.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa688…5f80backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…f2a9backed Yes | 43c | 93.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3db…1959backed Yes | 18c | 85.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 76.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…ac4fbacked Yes | 27c | 73.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d92…0b8bbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 67.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.