TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x64c6…a070

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
236
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST6230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$72.7
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$108
Will 'The Brutalist' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$17.1
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+233.3%+$140
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+66.7%+$40
Will "Death by Numbers" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$31.11
Will "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+703.5%+$757.32
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$51.82
Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$37
Will "Flow" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+205.2%+$344.37
Will 'The Monkey' gross more than 15m on its opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$192.28
Will 'The Monkey' gross between 12-15m on its opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+156.4%+$183
Will Demi Moore win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "The Substance"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+51.5%+$51
Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+614.6%+$896.9
Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$19.9
Will "Wicked" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $15-18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$30.5
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$135.3
Will "Conclave" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+228.3%+$142.55
Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Brutalist"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+73.4%+$302.91
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Substance"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$126.78
Will Ralph Finnes win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Conclave"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Brutalist"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+59.5%+$191.87
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$137.41
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$109.24
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+800.9%+$355.6
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$51
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.9
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$8.4
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$21.79
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+89.7%+$17.45
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$44.2
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$31.99
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.5
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$54
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.2
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$16.5
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$27
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.15
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.52
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$3.25
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.55
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT2920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-62.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$116
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$308
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.68
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.14
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.84
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.56
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.19
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$328.52
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.11
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$88
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$247
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+117.4%+$162
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$292
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$278.5
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+60.4%+$127.88
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+121.4%+$164.5
Turkish airbase in Syria before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.33
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$420.3
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$587Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+47.2%+$277.29
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+111.5%+$110.48
Will Erdogan visit Syria by January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$262.7
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT2412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.5
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.85
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$65.45
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+48.9%+$66.8
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$98.66
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$210.42
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhaus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20.57
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+115.2%+$243.14
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$69.46
Will Wesley So win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$86.99
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$133.35
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$65.96
Will Wei Yi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$56.43
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$34.05
Will Levon Aronian win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$22.42
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST-100%-$79.23
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$116.27
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$110.85
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$44.45
Will Wesley So win the 2024 World Rapid Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$24.74
Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$820Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+63.8%+$523.07
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,026Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$1,025.71
Will Levon Aronian win the 2024 US Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$77.22
Will Vidit Gujrathi win the 2024 WR Chess Masters Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$29
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+129.4%+$409.75
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+54.8%+$213.97
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+30%+$92.17
US military action against Iran by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+1,011.1%+$455
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$114
Will Trump agree to sell F-35 to Turkey before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.53
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.28
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+85.2%+$138
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20.33
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$576
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$60
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$12
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$75.6
Trump wins a solid blue state?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+26.6%+$7.2
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$68.4
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.12
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$205.71
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,362Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+46.8%+$638
Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.15
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+108.4%+$62.33
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.46
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$251.39
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$75.66
Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+76.6%+$139.79
Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$647.09
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$407
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$38.7
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+354.5%+$312
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$802Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$801.98
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$116.8
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$699Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+99.5%+$695.63
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$297.45
Fed rate cut by October meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+150.9%+$210.5
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$636Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+235.7%+$1,498.7
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will 'The Tortured Poets Department' win Album of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+41.5%+$150.94
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+359.9%+$960.99
Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+425.9%+$234.05
Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$114.51
Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$56.17
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Best Country Album?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+81.8%+$11.54
Will "Here We Go (Uh Oh)" by Coco Jones win Best R&B Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$75.04
Will "Texas Hold 'Em" by Beyoncé win Best Country Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-80.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick66cpaid-60%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+94.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+137%+$276.18
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+52.1%+$137.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+45.2%+$36.69
Will Mike Tyson knockout Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,876Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+34.3%+$643.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.1
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+108.3%+$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$41.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$93.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brentford vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$54
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$289.33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.