Movies · resolved market
Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Brutalist"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ce2270e9d1b36cfd44eb8e917469dc51ba682b8e2a1b185463b993b344f5ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 61c | 3,523$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.38 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 38c | 2,100$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.46 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 74c | 1,107$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.18 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…2961backed Yes | 63c | 933.57$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 36c | 700$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 61c | 699.99$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.99 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 65c | 690.53$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.53 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 38c | 650$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 63c | 514.54$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.87 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 464.3$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.64 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 41c | 451.19$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.74 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 62c | 446.26$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 57c | 321$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.03 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 44c | 280$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 38c | 217.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 66c | 175.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 38c | 170.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 150.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 58c | 145$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yes | 58c | 102$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 57c | 99.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 97.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 65c | 77.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked Yes | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…3b00backed Yes | 59c | 33.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x307c…5092backed No | 45c | 24.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dec…5bfbbacked Yes | 58c | 23.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…14f2backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Brutalist"?this page
- Will Coralie Fargeat win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Substance"?No won
- Will Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Dune: Part Two"?No won
- Will Edward Berger win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Conclave"?No won
- Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Emilia Pérez"?No won
- Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.