TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe75c…f6c2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
217
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST6442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+50.5%+$144.68
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,707Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$918.96
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.1%+$55.28
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,418Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,418.13
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$352.27
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$507.97
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$771Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+43.9%+$338.55
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13,938Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,938.1
Trump trade deal in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+344.4%+$860.25
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.89
Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$4.74
Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,664Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+71%+$1,892.39
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,099.85
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,146.49
TikTok sale announced before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$408.17
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12,822Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+63.6%+$8,151.5
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,451Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$1,221.08
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$29.84
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$9,967Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+40.7%+$4,053.33
Trump positive favorability on Day 100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$134.9
Will Randy Fine win by less than 10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$6,558Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+39.7%+$2,602.01
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,674Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+38.3%+$641.33
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$105.98
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+135.4%+$108.72
Will anyone audibly fart during tariff event on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.44
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST5040%20 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+0.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Anora" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$509Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+108.6%+$552.4
Will "Wicked" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$52.8
Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$101.53
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,617Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+59%+$954.59
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,868Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,868.16
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$982Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+265.5%+$2,607.53
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,840Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,839.74
Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Brutalist"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,912Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$4,911.51
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$347.55
Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Original Score at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$62.75
Will 'Nosferatu' win an Oscar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+25%+$88.8
Will "A Lien" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$13.11
Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$728Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+41.6%+$303.05
Will "Wicked" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$97
Will "Porcelain War" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+61.3%+$21.38
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$385.15
Will Felicity Jones win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$12.39
Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$14.24
Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+67%+$239.34
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$163.27
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$94.13
Will "Sing Sing" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11.37
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,868Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+32.8%+$941.82
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$6,194Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+54.2%+$3,358.47
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+37%+$64.53
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$365
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.06
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.76
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?backed Simion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$5,466Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+25.1%+$1,373.57
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,224.93
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,011Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,011.48
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.75
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$228.76
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$432.31
Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+159.5%+$881.98
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,084Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,084.45
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,169Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$1,386.45
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$4,495Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+68.3%+$3,068.42
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$122
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$713Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$712.62
Will Trump designate cartels as terrorists before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,991Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+31.4%+$938.48
Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,415Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2024, EDT+35.1%+$497.17
Will the NDA win by 0%-5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2024, EDT+669.2%+$1,740
Will the NDA win by 5%-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$297
Will the NDA win more than 400 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$90.3
Will the NDA win 376-400 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$447Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$447.35
Will the NDA win 326-350 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$48.34
Will the NDA win 351-375 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$357.3
All 23 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT2240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,275Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+39.5%+$897.43
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+45.9%+$211.28
Will Switzerland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.86
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+73.3%+$114.14
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+70.3%+$82.24
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,057Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,057.41
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$163.15
Will 'The Tortured Poets Department' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$98.17
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+41.4%+$217.38
Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Song of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$22.71
Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+737.2%+$2,101.05
Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$124.95
Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$649.03
Will "Texas Hold 'Em" by Beyoncé win Best Country Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$389.05
Taylor Swift #1 album for 10 or more weeks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2024, EDT+1,071%+$923.75
Taylor Swift #1 album for 8 weeks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Taylor Swift #1 album for 4 weeks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$58
Taylor Swift #1 album for 3 weeks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$64
Taylor Swift #1 album for 2 weeks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$48
Drake drops new track by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Kendrick drops another track by midnight?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2024, EDT+61.3%+$73.77
Top 10 songs on Billboard all from Taylor Swift?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$96
All 22 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+480.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$580.22
Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+72.3%+$169.06
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.96
Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.87
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,047Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+9,499.2%+$99,425.16
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,918Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+30.7%+$1,204.42
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$4,369Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+131%+$5,724.25
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$4,188Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$4,188.35
Will Cynthia Lummis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$744Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$743.95
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$388.5
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+65.9%+$77
Will Joni Ernst vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$495Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$494.79
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,491Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$4,490.64
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$9,201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$9,200.97
Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$122.98
Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+490.4%+$534.49
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,128Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+42.4%+$478.11
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,246Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$1,246.12
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$124
All 19 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+51.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,128Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+60.5%+$682.25
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$685Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+34.3%+$234.99
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,376Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+147.3%+$3,500.25
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$9,122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+156.5%+$14,272.98
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$31,330Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$8,085.83
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,954Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+44.1%+$862.04
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$6,868Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+70%+$4,810.27
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$59.09
Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$76
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$4,974Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,974.01
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$4,355Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,354.75
Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,334Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+73.3%+$977.68
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$507.56
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,566Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+211.8%+$5,435.07
Iran military response by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$124.34
Iran military response by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT+56.2%+$234
Will Iran President Raisi be found today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$101.05
Israel ground offensive in Rafah by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$149.77
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+255.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$26.66
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+114.5%+$373.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pershing Square IPO in 2024? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$130.83
$DJT market cap greater than $5b on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2024, EDT+92.3%+$98.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok banned in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$953Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+43.2%+$411.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 16, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$52.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$72.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.